Month-end supply tightened, spot premiums surged sharply [SMM North China Spot Copper]

According to Peru’s National Society of Mining, Petroleum and Energy (SNMPE), the country’s mining exports reached $42.221 billion in the first half of 2026, up 56% year on year. Copper exports rose 53.3% to $19.455 billion, accounting for approximately 46.1% of total mining exports. In June alone, copper exports increased 18% year on year to $2.626 billion, despite a 16.9% decline in export volume, indicating that higher prices more than offset the drop in shipments. The decline in export volume was partly attributable to lower mine output. Data from Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM) showed that copper production fell 4.7% year on year to 218,200 tonnes in June, with output at Antapaccay and Marcobre declining by 25.9% and 16.7%, respectively. However, the decline in copper production was significantly smaller than the contraction in export volume, suggesting that lower mine output alone cannot fully explain the decrease. Monthly concentrate shipment schedules and customs reporting cut-off dates may also have amplified the decline. Peru’s copper production still increased 1.9% year on year in the first half of 2026, while physical exports of copper ores and concentrates rose 3.88% during January–May. The June decline therefore appears to be a monthly fluctuation rather than evidence of a structural contraction in Peru’s copper supply. The market should continue to monitor production recovery at major mines and copper concentrate exports in the third quarter.