Tight Supply Pattern Continues and Low Inventory Underpins, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Consolidate at Highs [SMM Tin Noon Review]

Published: Aug 26, 2026 12:02

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: Supply tightness continues and low inventory provides support, the most-traded SHFE tin contract continues to consolidate at highs.]

Tin Market Midday Review, August 26, 2026

The center of gravity in tin markets in China and overseas moved higher today. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 425,980 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 422,800 yuan/mt before quickly rebounding to a high of 428,940 yuan/mt, then moved sideways around the 427,000 yuan/mt level, and closed the morning session at 427,550 yuan/mt, up 0.35% from the previous settlement price. On the external front, London three-month tin consolidated, currently tentatively trading at $55,890/mt, up 0.19%.

On the macro front:

(1) Temporary shipping arrangements in the Middle East Strait of Hormuz: According to reports from the Iranian side, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that under the newly reached understanding between Iran and Oman, the entry route into the Persian Gulf will pass through Iranian waters, while the exit route will pass through Omani and Iranian waters. The strait will only permit commercial vessels and prohibit any warships. This arrangement is a temporary measure and does not mean the immediate full opening of the strait. The two countries will negotiate on a permanent new route within 30-60 days.

(2) China's central bank conducted large-scale liquidity injection: The People's Bank of China announced that it will conduct overnight reverse repo operations from August 27 to September 1, with daily operation amounts not exceeding 600 billion yuan; at the same time, it conducted a 500 billion yuan one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation on August 25, continuing to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system.

Spot side, the market was relatively mediocre today. End-user orders have not shown clear signs of recovery, and downstream demand overall remained at a relatively weak level. Futures prices continued to consolidate in stalemate above the 420,000 yuan/mt level, with the market mainly concluding transactions via buy orders placed at lower levels. According to market feedback, as most downstream enterprises had already completed a small round of essential restocking yesterday, the number of inquiries and buy orders in the market this morning decreased compared with yesterday, and the overall scale of actual transaction volumes was limited.

In summary, the bottom of tin prices remains supported by fundamentals. In terms of supply, customs data showed that China's tin ore imports from Myanmar in July fell short of expectations, coupled with the recent disruption to local production pace in Indonesia due to policies cracking down on illegal mining, perpetuating the tight raw material situation. On the inventory side, global visible inventory overall stands at relatively low levels, providing strong confidence against downside for market sentiment. Although the spot side is constrained by off-season demand and absolute high prices, making it difficult for downstream to sustain large-scale purchases, under the influence of tight supply and low inventory, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain its current range-bound consolidation in the near term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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