The most-traded SHFE tin contract is stagnant at 423,000-426,000, awaiting the evening PCE to break the deadlock [SMM Tin Morning News]

Futures

LME: LME three-month tin closed the Aug 25 electronic session at $55,785/mt, up $215, or 0.39%, with an intraday high of 55,885 and a low of 55,475. On a day when London base metals broadly rose, tin continued to outperform most of its peers; the core logic lies in a three-way resonance of cooling expectations for macro rate hikes, a renewed geopolitical risk premium, and divergences in fundamentals across commodities.

China: the most-traded contract has completed the roll to the 2610 contract.The 2609 contract closed the Aug 25 daytime session at 424,980 yuan/mt, down 0.40%; in the night session (8/26 01:02), the SHFE tin continuous contract closed at 426,250 yuan/mt, up 170 yuan, or 0.04%, with a high of 427,500 and a low of 422,800.09:02 open: 2610 was at 425,600 yuan/mt, down 480 yuan, or 0.11%, opened at 425,980, with a low of 422,800, a high of 427,500, an average price of 425,243, and open interest of 41,996 lots; 2609 was at 424,850 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan, or 0.19%—the morning session opened slightly lower; 425,000 (around the 2610 opening price) is the new short-term center, and 422,800 (the night-session/morning-session low) is the first pullback support.

Inventory:

• LME tin inventory stood at 5,155 mt on Aug 25, down 75 mt from the prior day—tight destocking outside China continues, and the “short squeeze undertone” of low inventory + high cancellations remains intact;
• SHFE tin warrants stood at 5,564 mt on Aug 25, up 70 mt from the prior day—SHFE warrants rebounded, and the divergence of “LME tight destocking + rising SHFE warrants” continues;

Macro: tonight’s 20:30 US July PCE is the “final judge” for the September path, with 0.18% MoM for core as the dividing line

. (1) PCE consensus preview: headline 3.6% YoY, core 3.2%–3.3% YoY, core 0.18%–0.20% MoM. Released at 20:30 Beijing time on Aug 26, July PCE: the FactSet consensus expects headline PCE MoM +0.07% (prior -0.11%) and YoY 3.6% (prior 3.7%); core PCE MoM +0.18% (prior +0.13%) and YoY 3.2% (prior 3.3%). Goldman Sachs has lowered its core PCE MoM forecast from 0.23% to 0.20% based on CPI+PPI data, corresponding to a YoY rate of about 3.24% — slightly below the market consensus of 3.3%. Hodge of Natixis noted that "price hikes for computer hardware/software due to AI and data center construction are still emerging," implying upside risks to the core MoM reading.

(2) The probability of a September rate hike is currently around 60/40. According to CME FedWatch as of August 24: the probability of maintaining the current rate in September is58.6%, while the probability of a 25bp hike is36.2% — maintaining the rate has a slight edge, but the probability of a hike is not negligible.Three scenario analyses for PCE:

• Dovish scenario (core MoM ≤0.1%) → September rate hike probability drops below 30%, tin prices leverage low inventory to surge past 430,000;
• Neutral scenario (core MoM = 0.18%–0.20%, in line with expectations) → 60/40 split persists, tin consolidates at highs between 42.5 and 430,000;
• Hawkish scenario (core MoM ≥0.25%, exceeding expectations) → September rate hike probability jumps above 55%, tin retreats to 420,000 or even 415,000.

(3) Also at 20:30 on the same day, Q2 GDP revision (expected to remain at 3.1%) and July durable goods orders (expected MoM +0.5%) will be released — GDP and PCE are released simultaneously. If GDP is significantly revised downward and PCE exceeds expectations, a "stagflation" pricing scenario emerges; if GDP holds steady and PCE is mild, a "soft landing" scenario is priced.

(4) Countdown to Warsh's Jackson Hole debut: 48 hours: Keynote speech at 10:00 AM ET on Friday, August 28, only 19 days before the September 16 FOMC meeting. The market is extremely sensitive; former St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned that "the Fed's credibility is at risk" —The 20-minute speech is the "decisive statement" before September.

(5) NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 earnings report will be released after market close tonight (Beijing time early August 27), guiding ~$91 billion in revenue and a gross margin of 75% — if AI Capex exceeds expectations again, tin's "solder α" short-term sentiment will be further boosted; if it falls short, leverage compression in the tech chain will drag tin prices down.

(6) Long-end U.S. Treasury hidden line: After the 30-year yield breached 5.33%, Bessent doubled the long-term bond buyback ceiling to $4 billion on August 19, but the "fever shot" effect wore off in less than 24 hours —The high level of long-term interest rates is a practical constraint on Warsh's hawkishness and the underlying reason why tin's "easing trade" has not been unilaterally realized.

Fundamentals: Approaching end of rainy season in Wa State + Indonesia's export controls, supply hard constraints remain unrelaxed

(1) Myanmar's Wa State is still in the tail end of the rainy season, mine operations and logistics remain constrained, making it difficult for tin concentrate imports to see a significant increase; the ceiling for full-year production resumption remains at 40%–50% of pre-ban levels, and a full resumption has been postponed to 2027.

(2) Indonesia's refined tin export controls continue to be implemented, with low annual quota and the market continuously monitoring the pace of the windfall tax policy for tin mines; Timah's annual maintenance has ended, and exports may recover in August — the driving effect of supply disruptions on prices has weakened somewhat, but the extent of export recovery is limited.

Spot market (review as of Aug 25 + pre-session estimate for Aug 26)

Spot on Aug 25: Futures fell 0.40% during the daytime session, with suppliers holding prices firm and downstream clients making just-in-time procurement. SMM 1# Tin was quoted at 422,800–425,700 yuan/mt; spot premiums: small brands against September contracts parity to premium of 400 yuan/mt, Yun prefixes against September contracts premium of 400–800 yuan/mt, Yunnan Tin against September contracts premium of 800–1,200 yuan/mt—the premium structure has narrowed notably compared with the earlier period (small brands at +500 to +900, Yunnan Tin at +1,500), reflecting that under high-price suppression, traders' willingness to hold prices firm has weakened.

Trading volumes: Supply hard constraints provide support, while near-end off-season demand remains weak and macro sentiment fluctuates repeatedly; futures lack a unilateral driver, maintaining a sideways range — 425,000–430,000 is the main range for downstream clients to be willing to fix prices, and they basically do not place orders above 430,000.

[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct recommendations for investment research decisions; clients should make decisions with caution and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]