Crude oil fell over 4%, metals showed mixed performance, LME and SHFE zinc and stainless steel rose over 1%, and COMEX gold posted five consecutive gains [Overnight Market].

SMM August 26 news:

Base metals market:

Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with only LME lead and SHFE nickel falling together, LME lead down 0.76%, SHFE nickel down 0.02%. SHFE zinc and LME zinc both rose over 1%, with LME zinc up 1.5% and SHFE zinc up 1.23%. Other base metals saw gains within 1%. The alumina continuous contract fell 1%, while the cast aluminum continuous contract rose 0.52%.

Overnight, ferrous metals declined except for stainless steel, which rose 1.59%. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all fluctuated slightly. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.03%, and coke fell 2.24%.

In precious metals overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.39% to $4,715.9/oz, recording five consecutive gains, while COMEX silver edged up 0.05%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.26%, and SHFE silver fell 0.14%.

As of 6:42 a.m. on August 26, overnight closing market data:

Macro Front

Domestic side:

[National Energy Administration Establishes "Belt and Road" Energy Partnership Cooperation Network "AI + Energy" Working Group]The National Energy Administration's General Department issued a notice on establishing the "Belt and Road" Energy Partnership Cooperation Network "AI + Energy" Working Group. It aims to strengthen policy communication and experience sharing among member states in areas such as AI empowering energy transition and green energy supporting sustainable computing, assess technology trends and governance issues, and build multilateral cooperation consensus. It will focus on scenarios including new energy power prediction, power system optimization, new-type energy storage regulation, multi-energy collaborative optimization, and green energy supporting computing infrastructure construction, promoting joint R&D, technical exchanges, and demonstration cooperation. Joint research will be conducted on frontier topics such as digital energy standards, technology certification, green computing evaluation, and energy data cooperation governance, to align and coordinate rules and standards in the energy and digital fields. The working group will also organize specialized training, seminars, and talent development for member states to enhance their technical capabilities and governance levels in energy digitalization and intelligent development. (National Energy Administration)

[IDC: China's AI Basic Data Service Market Size Expected to Reach 7.834 Billion Yuan in 2026]International Data Corporation (IDC) has for the first time systematically quantified AI basic data services as an independent track, and recently released the "China AI Basic Data Service Market Research Report, 2025". The report shows that in 2025, the market size of China's AI basic data services reached 6.262 billion yuan, up 27.8% YoY, with growth exceeding market expectations. The market size is expected to further grow to 7.834 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6% from 2025 to 2030. (Jin Shi Data APP)

[Shenzhen: Industrial Value-Added Above Designated Size up 9.2% YoY in Jan-Jul]From Jan to Jul, Shenzhen's industrial value-added above designated size increased by 9.2% YoY, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points from H1. By sector, mining value-added rose 3.3% YoY, manufacturing grew 9.9%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increased 3.3%. Among major industries, special equipment manufacturing rose 14.4%, general equipment manufacturing rose 14.3%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased 12.7%, and electricity and heat production and supply grew 9.1%. Production of high-tech products maintained rapid growth, with 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and lithium-ion battery production increasing by 62.3%, 45.5%, and 27.1%, respectively. (Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics)

On the US dollar front:

As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.91. The discount rate meeting minutes released by the US Fed on Wednesday morning showed that four of the 12 regional Fed boards voted to raise the interest rate charged on emergency loans to commercial banks a few days before the Fed's July meeting. The Fed's FOMC decided to keep the policy rate unchanged by a 9-3 vote at its July 28-29 meeting, and the above recommendation further highlighted how much controversy the decision sparked internally. The Dallas Fed, Cleveland Fed, and Minneapolis Fed boards, along with the Kansas City Fed board, voted to raise the primary credit rate by 25 basis points. The presidents of the first three regional Feds voted against keeping rates unchanged at the July policy meeting, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid has no voting rights this year. Regional Fed directors are not monetary policy decision-makers and do not determine the Fed's interest rate, but they regularly meet with their respective regional Fed presidents. The regional Fed presidents said the directors' views help shape their own economic and policy outlooks. Regional Fed boards vote on the discount rate at regular meetings, but the rate is ultimately set by the Fed Board of Governors to align with the top of the policy rate target range. Since December last year, the Fed's policy rate target range has remained at 3.5%-3.75%. (Jin Shi Data)

Fed's Barkin said that if US debt continues to climb, it will eventually face a "reckoning," but it is hard to predict when this will happen. When asked about total US public debt exceeding $40 trillion, Barkin stated that as long as the public continues to buy government bonds, the government can keep borrowing. However, he added that investors might start showing resistance sentiment. Barkin said: "As things develop, there will eventually be a reckoning. It's just that no one can predict the exact timing. We have a global currency and a rule-of-law system—these are exactly why people keep buying our debt. But you know, someday, people will stop buying your debt, and that's the risk we have now." Additionally, Barkin reiterated remarks he made earlier this month that interest rates should be kept stable given evidence of falling inflation, but he acknowledged that if price pressures become entrenched, policymakers may have to raise rates. (Jinshi Data APP)

CITIC Securities research reported that Fed Chairman Wo Shi will deliver a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday. Against the backdrop of high long-term Treasury yields and the fleeting effect of repo announcements, his speech has become one of the few potential trading anchors for the market recently. This is a window to test Wo Shi's communication skills. We believe he will seize this opportunity to repair his credibility and may need to adjust his previous "fully vague" communication strategy. We will focus on observing his content regarding policy transparency, which is more important than the traditional "hawkish" or "dovish" stance. (Jinshi Data APP)

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 60.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 39.6%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 45.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 44.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 9.7%. (Jinshi Data APP)

On the macro front:

Today, the following data will be released: US July core PCE price index year-on-year, US July personal spending month-on-month, US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate (revised), US July core PCE price index month-on-month, US July durable goods orders month-on-month, and Australia July unadjusted CPI year-on-year. Additionally, Switzerland August ZEW investor confidence index, UK August CBI retail sales difference, and other data.

Furthermore, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will attend a panel discussion.

On crude oil:

As of overnight close, crude oil prices on both markets fell together, with US crude down 4.59% and Brent crude down 5.06%. According to Russian media, the US and Iran have reached consensus on the terms of a ceasefire agreement. A joint statement issued by Iran and Oman on the 25th said the two sides have discussed establishing a temporary joint shipping channel and conducting mine-clearing operations in the strait, and will continue technical consultations to promote the establishment of a permanent shipping channel and related traffic and safety management mechanisms. After the news broke, market expectations for a gradual resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz rose.

For the crude oil market, the significance of the signals released by Iran and Oman this time lies in the fact that the restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is advancing from "principle discussions" to specific temporary shipping arrangements. However, there remains a significant gap before the strait can fully return to normal navigation: Iran has repeatedly emphasized that the US must first lift its maritime blockade on Iranian ports and restore exemptions for Iranian oil exports before Iran will allow free passage in the strait. (Wall Street CN)

US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 21: 4.2 million barrels, expectations 1.86 million barrels, previous -328,000 barrels. US API Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending August 21: 1 million barrels, previous -1.438 million barrels. (Jinshi Data)