Supply Hard to Find in the Market, With the Center of Shanghai Spot Premiums Moving Higher [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Aug 25, 2026 11:57

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, intraday trading in the Shanghai spot market for copper cathode was relatively active, with purchase sentiment rebounding markedly. According to SMM, currently available cargo in the market is relatively tight. After the market entered the second trading session, low-priced cargo declined rapidly, and suppliers took the opportunity to raise their offers. On the one hand, recent port congestion has affected the pace of arrivals and warehousing for some imported copper, so imported supply has provided relatively limited replenishment to China’s spot market; on the other hand, as the export window for copper opens, some market participants have become more willing to export, which has also diverted some of the available cargo in China. In addition, rapid inventory drawdowns have further reinforced expectations of tight spot supply. Against this backdrop, suppliers are more inclined to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, while downstream buyers and traders still have restocking demand. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to edge up. Copper prices remain at elevated absolute levels; if the premium continues to rise rapidly, downstream purchase willingness may be somewhat restrained, and the upside in the premium is expected to be relatively limited.

SMM, August 25:

Today, SMM assessed Shanghai spot #1 copper cathode prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract at a premium of 180–320 yuan/mt, with the average at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2609 contract retreated after a rapid rise overall. After the morning open, prices surged quickly, hitting an intraday high near 108,550 yuan/mt before pulling back rapidly; thereafter, the price center consolidated lower and gradually moved below the average price line, briefly dipping to around 108,050 yuan/mt near midday, and finally rebounded slightly to 108,120 yuan/mt. The back-month backwardation spread ranged between 160 yuan/mt and 250 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for the SHFE copper 2609 front-month contract ranged from a loss of 1,370 yuan/mt to a loss of 1,280 yuan/mt.

Intraday, in Shanghai, the selling sentiment for copper cathode was 2.94, down 0.12 MoM, while purchase willingness was 3.25, up 0.27 MoM; historical data can be queried in the database. Early in the morning session, suppliers’ first-round offers were for standard-quality copper at a premium of 180–220 yuan/mt; Tiefeng, Zijin, and Dajiang HS traded at a premium of 180–200 yuan/mt, Lufang and JCC traded at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, and high-quality copper (Guixi) traded at a premium of 290 yuan/mt. Entering the second time window, available cargoes tightened and the market found it difficult to source material. Suppliers raised quotes accordingly: Lufang and others traded at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, and some suppliers offered standard-quality copper at a premium of 250 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, trading in Shanghai’s spot copper cathode market was relatively active intraday, and purchase sentiment rebounded markedly. According to SMM, current available cargoes in the market were relatively tight; after entering the second time window, low-priced cargoes decreased rapidly, and suppliers raised quotes accordingly. On the one hand, recent port congestion affected the pace of arrivals and warehousing for some imported copper, so imported cargoes provided relatively limited replenishment to China’s spot market; on the other hand, as the copper export window opened, some market participants’ willingness to export increased, also diverting some available cargoes in China. In addition, rapid inventory drawdowns further reinforced expectations of tight spot supply. Against this backdrop, suppliers were inclined to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, while downstream users and traders still had restocking demand. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center possibly edging up. With copper prices still at elevated absolute levels, if premiums continue to rise rapidly, downstream purchase willingness may be somewhat restrained; therefore, the upside in premiums is expected to be relatively limited.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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