[SMM Analysis] July Aluminum Extrusion Exports Down 2.4% MoM, Long-Term Contracts Support Amid Spot Order Weakness

SMM, August 25，

According to customs data, in July 2026, China’s aluminum extrusion exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) were 89,800 mt, down 2.4% MoM and up 6.6% YoY. This was the first pullback after four consecutive months of MoM rebound since March, when exports hit a year-to-date low of 48,300 mt. July’s export volume remained the second highest this year, staying at a high plateau. January-July cumulative exports were 537,100 mt, up 8.6% YoY cumulatively; export growth slowed down from H1 but still maintained positive growth.

By province, in July, Guangdong Province exported 38,000 mt, accounting for 42.7% of total exports, down 4.1% MoM and down 13.4% YoY; Shandong Province exported 12,000 mt, accounting for 13.7%, down 11.9% MoM and down 10.8% YoY; Fujian Province exported 12,000 mt, accounting for 13.6%, up 185.0% MoM and up 431.4% YoY. Hainan Province continued its role as a new force in exports after the free trade port closure, exporting 2,900 mt in July, ranking fifth nationally, pulling back MoM but still significantly higher than the same period last year. Sichuan and Heilongjiang Provinces in central/western China recorded YoY growth rates of 231.8% and 31,092.3% respectively, continuing the trend of aluminum extrusion exports spreading inland, while traditional production regions saw marginal weakening in export momentum.

From the perspective of export destinations, aluminum extrusion exports by country in July exhibited characteristics of "a high-level pullback in core markets and wild swings in African markets." In July, China's aluminum extrusion exports to Nigeria amounted to 7,700 mt, accounting for 8.6% of total exports; exports to Malaysia reached 7,600 mt, representing 8.5% of total exports; exports to Vietnam totaled 5,600 mt, accounting for 6.2% of total exports. Combined exports to the top 15 countries were 54,400 mt, accounting for 60.6% of total exports, indicating a moderate level of market concentration and showing diversified export destinations for aluminum extrusions, though Southeast Asia remained the core destination. Exports to six Middle Eastern countries—UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia—totaled 2,300 mt, accounting for 2.5% of total exports, up 4.3% MoM and 9.9% YoY, continuing a mild expansion in exports to the Middle East. Additionally, exports to the five Central Asian countries totaled 1,400 mt, representing 1.6% of total exports, up 24.1% MoM and 35.4% YoY, with growth rates exceeding the overall level. In Africa, Nigeria rebounded from 500 mt in June to 7,700 mt, regaining its position as the top destination, with an increase of 11.1% YoY; however, exports to Morocco plunged from 1,400 mt in June to 20 mt, down 86.9% YoY, while exports to South Africa stood at 3,800 mt, up 1.9% YoY. Excluding South Africa, which remained relatively stable, the stability of exports to other African regions requires confirmation. In Latin America and the Caribbean, exports to Colombia, Peru, Chile, Brazil, and Mexico totaled 9,300 mt, accounting for 10.4% of total exports. Among these, exports to Colombia were 2,900 mt (3.2% of total), and exports to Brazil were 1,900 mt (2.1% of total), up 8.6% MoM and 62.4% YoY. Except for Brazil, which saw growth both MoM and YoY, the other four countries all experienced negative MoM growth.

From the trade mode perspective, in July, China's aluminum extrusion exports via Ordinary Trade totaled approximately 80,900 mt, accounting for 90.1%, up 0.7% from 89.4% in June. Exports via processing trade with imported materials were about 4,800 mt, accounting for 5.4%, down 1.2% from 6.6% in June. Exports via processing trade with supplied materials were about 3,400 mt, accounting for 3.8%, up 0.5% from 3.3% in June.

In July, China's aluminum extrusion exports reached 89,800 mt, down 2.4% MoM and up 6.6% YoY. Cumulative exports from Jan-Jul totaled 537,100 mt, up 8.6% YoY. While maintaining high YoY growth, exports have already shown a MoM inflection point, with the earlier price spread-driven export momentum marginally weakening. By destination, regional divergence was significant. The African market experienced wild swings: Nigeria rebounded sharply from a low of 500 mt in June to 7,700 mt, becoming the largest export destination; while Morocco plunged from 1,400 mt to 20 mt, nearly zero. The data of the two countries, one rising and one falling, highlighted the instability of single-country orders in Africa and the overall fluctuation risk of the region. The Southeast Asian market pulled back 11.3% MoM, with Vietnam and Thailand entering an order digestion period after concentrated deliveries, resulting in significant pullbacks. By product structure, building extrusions remained the main export. According to SMM survey, current exports of building extrusion enterprises are mainly to long-term cooperative clients, with stable cooperative relationships and strong demand resilience. No systemic order contraction has occurred yet. However, affected by the ongoing repair of price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets, the export profit window is narrowing, willingness to take spot orders declined, and demand also weakened synchronously. Recently, spot export orders have pulled back. Industrial extrusion exports remained stable overall, with no notable order decline. In summary, although July aluminum extrusion exports maintained 6.6% YoY growth, they have turned lower MoM. Currently, long-term cooperative overseas clients provide stable support for the export base, but the spot order dividend driven by earlier expansion of the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets is gradually fading within the year. As the price spread further narrows and enterprises' orders on hand continue to be absorbed, it is expected that subsequent aluminum extrusion exports will continue the MoM pullback trend.