SMM August 25 news:
The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2610 contract opened at 23,850 yuan/mt today, with an intraday high of 23,855 yuan/mt, a low of 23,695 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,755 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt, or 0.25%. Bulls lacked upward momentum, prices pulled back slightly, and the rebound pace slowed down. Trading volume was 96,475 lots, up 17,502 lots MoM, showing an increase in trading volume and improved trading activity; open interest was 268,000 lots, down 448 lots MoM, a small decline in open interest, relatively small, with no large-scale opening actions from either bulls or bears, indicating a period of consolidation and digestion after the rebound.
SMM comments: Macro sentiment fluctuated, and the Middle East situation entered a "non-war, non-peace" state, frequently disrupting aluminum prices in China and overseas. On the fundamentals side, the destocking trend of domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued, providing bottom support for aluminum prices. However, daily average aluminum production outside China is expected to continue rebounding, driven by new and resumed production capacity. The SHFE/LME price ratio has been repaired, and with the digestion of orders on hand, export demand is expected to gradually weaken. Additionally, domestic end-user demand was mediocre, and the transition period between off-season and peak season is not yet clear. The market has certain concerns about peak season demand. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue consolidating on a subdued note.
The most-traded alumina 2610 contract opened at 2,699 yuan/mt today, with an intraday high of 2,710 yuan/mt, a low of 2,672 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,676 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt, or 0.74%. Trading volume was 137,000 lots, up 58,743 lots MoM, a significant increase in trading volume, with selling pressure released this period; open interest was 250,000 lots, down 13,903 lots MoM, a simultaneous sharp decline in open interest. Profit-taking positions from the rebound were concentratedly exited, with bulls mainly reducing positions, without large-scale new bear positions opening. This was a profit-taking market after the rebound.
SMM comments: Spot alumina prices continued to fall, and the oversupply situation in China continued to pressure, with the price center moving further down. Markets outside China performed strongly, supported by increased demand for bagged alumina in the Middle East region and tight supply of bauxite from Indonesia, driving overseas alumina prices higher, widening the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Looking ahead to next week, maintenance at an alumina enterprise in Guangxi will end, capacity is expected to recover, and supply is expected to increase, keeping the market under pressure. In terms of imports and exports, net imports in July were 63,000 mt, and subsequent net imports are expected to decline, with port inventory likely to drop within the period. Overall, inventory levels are expected to fluctuate within the current range, and spot prices will remain in the doldrums.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
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