SMM August 24 report:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2610 contract opened at 23,840 yuan/mt, hit a daily high of 23,860 yuan/mt and a low of 23,745 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,765 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt, or 0.29% intraday. Short-term moving averages flattened and intertwined, with the 5-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages converging. Prices sat at the intersection of moving averages, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, moving into a sideways consolidation pattern. Trading volume was 81,027 lots, up 18,871 lots MoM; open interest was 264,000 lots, down 3,332 lots MoM. Trading volume expanded while open interest edged down simultaneously. After the rebound and surge, bulls reduced positions, with no large-scale bearish position buildup to suppress prices, representing profit-taking behavior after the rebound.
SMM comments: Macro sentiment fluctuates, and the Middle East situation has entered a "neither war nor peace" state, frequently disrupting aluminum prices in China and overseas. Fundamentals side, aluminum ingot inventory continues the destocking trend, providing bottom support for aluminum prices. However, the SHFE/LME price ratio has recovered, and as orders on hand are digested, export demand is expected to gradually weaken. China's terminal end-user domestic demand is mediocre, and the transition period between off-season and peak season remains unclear. The market has some concerns about demand in the peak season. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note.
Today, the most-traded SHFE alumina 2610 contract opened at 2,710 yuan/mt, hit a daily high of 2,713 yuan/mt and a low of 2,688 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,690 yuan/mt, down 21 yuan/mt, or 0.77% intraday. Trading volume was 96,756 lots, down 15,830 lots MoM; open interest was 271,000 lots, down 7,192 lots MoM. Trading volume shrank significantly compared to the previous period. After the surge, the willingness to chase highs declined. Open interest also decreased, reflecting position reduction and pullback after the rise, with some bulls exiting. No large-scale bearish position increase to suppress prices has yet emerged.
SMM comments: Spot alumina prices have fallen steadily, and the oversupply pattern in China continues to pressure, pushing the price center further down. Markets outside China performed strongly, boosted by increased demand for bagged alumina in the Middle East and tight bauxite supply in Indonesia. Overseas alumina prices have continued to rise, widening the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets. Looking ahead to next week, an alumina enterprise in Guangxi will end its maintenance, and capacity will recover, with supply expected to increase, keeping the market under pressure. Regarding imports and exports, net imports in July were 63,000 mt, and subsequent net imports are expected to decrease. Port inventory may decline during the period. Overall, inventory levels are expected to fluctuate within the current range, and spot prices will remain in the doldrums.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions with caution and not replace their own independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
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