Metals: Domestic Market Outperforms Overseas Market - Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal Up Nearly 3%, SHFE Zinc Up Over 1%, New York Gold Returns to 4700 [SMM Noon Review]

SMM August 24:

Metal Market:

As of the noon close, base metals rose broadly on the domestic market. SHFE copper gained 0.44%, SHFE aluminum added 0.89%. SHFE lead climbed 0.4%. SHFE zinc rose 1.19%. SHFE tin dropped 0.78%. SHFE nickel gained 0.8%.

Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures gained 0.26%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.56%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 2.9%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 1.73%.

Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 1.77%, rebar added 1.62%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.67%. Stainless steel rose 0.39%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 2.93%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 3.87%.

For overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper edged down 0.14%, LME aluminum edged up 0.06%. LME lead was unchanged at $1,901/mt, LME zinc shed 0.24%. LME tin fell 1.04%. LME nickel dropped 0.32%.

Precious metals: as of 11:40, COMEX gold added 0.46%, hitting a fresh high since May at $4,713.8/oz. COMEX silver gained 1.06%. On the domestic market, SHFE gold gained 2.79%, hitting a fresh high since May at 1,008.78 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract added 1.31%.

In addition, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.37%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.61%.

As of the noon close, the most-traded European line container shipping contract rose 7.16% to 2,020.5 points.

As of 11:40 on August 24, some futures midday quotes:

Spot Market & Fundamentals

Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported a premium of 150 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,840 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,735 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...

Macro Front

China side:

[Preview: State Council Information Office to hold press conference on fully implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan and accelerating new-type industrialization] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the theme "Getting off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan" at 10:00 am on August 26, 2026 (Wednesday). Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, will introduce efforts to fully implement the 15th Five-Year Plan and accelerate new-type industrialization, and answer questions from reporters.

[SASAC: Accelerate the Cultivation of Talent in Controlled Nuclear Fusion, Deepen Integration of "Fusion + AI" Innovation] A message from the website of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council stated that on August 19, the Central Enterprise Future Energy Talent Training Class, hosted by SASAC, commenced via a combination of online and offline modes. Tan Zuojun, member of the SASAC Party Committee and Deputy Director, attended the opening ceremony and delivered a speech. Tan emphasized focusing on the future energy field of controlled nuclear fusion, relying on the controlled nuclear fusion innovation consortium, to promote coordinated research in the industry chain, and accelerate the cultivation of talent in controlled nuclear fusion. He stressed the need to deeply study and grasp the development laws of controlled nuclear fusion, identify the main technical directions, focus on driving original innovation and fundamental breakthroughs, deeply advance the integrated innovation of "fusion + AI," and gather talent from both domestic and overseas sources, as well as from industry, academia, and research, to tackle challenges together. (Jin Shi Data APP)

[PBOC's Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 340 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 340 billion yuan today. As there were no reverse repos maturing today, it achieved a net injection of 340 billion yuan. (Jin Shi Data APP)

On the US dollar front:

As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 98.83. The market is focused on key US inflation data and the speech by Fed Chairman Walsh later this week.

This week, bond investors will closely monitor Fed Chairman Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole. The market is seeking his response to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns, and long-term bonds may face further selling pressure. Since taking office in May, Walsh has rarely provided forward policy guidance. His remarks after the last monetary policy meeting triggered a massive sell-off in the bond market, highlighting the market's high sensitivity to his Friday speech. Molly Brooks, US rate strategist at TD Securities, said: "I think if he continues to provide no more information, the market will be disappointed, which could further exacerbate the recent sell-off in long-term bonds." Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance, said that the factors persistently weighing on the bond market remain, including fiscal concerns, inflation, and uncertainty over the Fed's response. Dhiraj Narula, rate strategist at HSBC, said this presents an opportunity for Walsh to reassure investors by clarifying his policy outlook. He said: "In our view, if Chairman Walsh can make some judgments on potential inflationary pressures, it may be enough to reduce the term premium related to uncertainty."

According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41.0%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October is 46.6%, with a 44.8% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and an 8.6% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike.

US Fed's Kashkari downplayed market concerns over rising US Treasury yields, saying the market is functioning well and the recent surge is unlikely to affect monetary policy discussions. Kashkari said on Sunday, "There are signs that the US Treasury market is functioning normally, with trading proceeding as usual and ample market liquidity, so we can use the federal funds rate as the main policy tool to lower inflation." Last week, US Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the benchmark 10-year yield closing at around 4.73%. The 30-year yield remained near its highest level since 2007. Kashkari said that while current Treasury yields are high relative to recent historical levels, yields in the 1990s were much higher. "We need more data, but I don't want to prejudge the outcome of the next meeting," he said, "However, I don't expect inflation to pull back to the target level in the short term." (Jin10 Data APP)

Data:

China's July year-to-date installed power generation capacity and the year-to-date installed power generation capacity year-on-year rate for July will be released today. In addition, pay attention to: Pinduoduo earnings conference call.

Crude oil:

As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets fell, with US crude down 1.48% and Brent crude down 1.35%.

After US President Trump announced an "unprecedented" economic war against Iran, US Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that the specific actions of the "unprecedented economic isolation" measures against Iran will be officially announced on the 24th. Iran, on the 23rd, played its "oil export countermeasure card": if the US wages an economic war, there will be no oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz and even the Persian Gulf region. Currently, there are less than 24 hours before the US releases the details of the sanctions. Public opinion generally believes that this is a reluctant move by the US under the current reality of prolonged conflict and fruitless negotiations between the US and Iran. Although the specific measures have not yet been announced, some analysts believe that this action may ultimately lead to a "lose-lose" situation. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to the Financial Times, due to tight oil supply caused by the Gulf conflict, India's oil purchases from Russia hit a record high, making it more difficult for New Delhi to reduce its dependence on Moscow. Trade consultancy Kpler's chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said that in June and July, New Delhi imported over 2.6 million barrels of Russian oil per day, up from a low of 1 million barrels per day in February, accounting for more than half of the country's crude oil imports. With a peace deal between Washington and Tehran still elusive, a small flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has forced India to turn back to Russia to meet its oil needs. To curb the impact of the Gulf crisis, Trump approved partial exemptions allowing India to buy Russian oil. With Middle Eastern natural gas supplies disrupted by war, India, like many other Asian countries, has turned back to coal-fired power generation. Over the decade since March 2015, India's annual coal production surged 70% to 1.04 billion mt.

Separately, according to foreign media, ExxonMobil said in a statement that a fire in the laundry room of a floating vessel off the coast of Guyana forced the company to temporarily suspend operations at the facility. The statement said the fire on the Liza Unity floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel was quickly extinguished. A spokesperson for ExxonMobil Guyana said crude offloading operations were affected by the temporary shutdown. The Liza field is key to transforming Guyana into a major crude producer, and the Liza Unity FPSO produces about 250,000 barrels of the 900,000-plus barrels per day from the Stabroek block. (Jin10 Data APP)

Spot market overview:

►

►

►

►

►

►

►

►