LME copper bulls increased positions, rising more than 1%, while SHFE copper bears reduced positions and slightly closed higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.8.24 Monday
Futures: SMM August 24 news, last Friday evening LME copper opened at $14,186/mt, initially drifted higher to a high of $14,260/mt, then retreated from highs to a low of $14,171/mt, finally closed at $14,185/mt, up 1.02%, with trading volume of 19,000 lots and open interest of 263,000 lots, up 1,603 lots from the previous trading day, showing long-position additions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,070 yuan/mt, initially rose to 108,280 yuan/mt, then pulled back to a low of 107,840 yuan/mt, finally closed at 107,900 yuan/mt, up 0.14%, with trading volume of 21,000 lots and open interest of 147,000 lots, down 2,861 lots from the previous trading day, showing short-position reductions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated in its latest monthly bulletin that the global refined copper market saw a supply deficit of 60,000 mt in June, compared with a supply surplus of 15,000 mt in May. ICSG said that in the first six months of this year, the cumulative copper market supply surplus was 131,000 mt, compared with a surplus of 114,000 mt in the same period last year. Global refined copper production in June was 2.37 million mt, and consumption was 2.43 million mt.
(1) Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On August 21, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract were quoted at a premium of 190-360 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 275 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early morning, the SHFE copper 2609 contract showed a pattern of shooting up and then consolidating at highs. After the opening, prices quickly rose from around 107,380 yuan/mt, with some fluctuations but the center continuously rising; near 10:30, the pace accelerated, with the intraday high reaching around 107,780 yuan/mt. Thereafter, prices retreated from highs and consolidated in the 107,600-107,700 yuan/mt range, closing the morning at 107,570 yuan/mt. The price spread between consecutive futures contracts (Back) ranged between 230-290 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract for the current month was between a loss of 700 yuan/mt and a loss of 590 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, previously arrived Russian copper has been largely absorbed by the market, and the concentrated impact of earlier imported cargoes on the spot market has eased. However, according to SMM, some non-registered copper, delayed due to port factors, is expected to arrive early next week, potentially increasing available market supply and putting some pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers continue to focus on buying the dip and restocking for essential needs. Although intraday buying sentiment continued to recover, standard-quality copper only saw transactions after the morning premium of around 300 yuan/mt was continuously lowered to 180-210 yuan/mt, reflecting that downstream buyers' acceptance of current copper prices and relatively high premiums remains limited. Meanwhile, high-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper cargoes are relatively scarce, and the price spread between brands is expected to persist. In summary, under the combined effects of non-registered copper arrivals supplementing supply, downstream buyers pushing for lower prices, and high copper prices curbing rush-to-buy demand, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week, but the overall center may continue to be in the doldrums; if copper prices fall significantly, the release of dip-buying demand could provide some support for the lower end of premiums.
(2) Guangdong: On August 21, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were reported at premiums of 130-200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 165 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at premiums of 50-70 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,740 yuan/mt, up 365 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,495 yuan/mt, up 365 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream demand recovered, and with low inventories, suppliers offered high premiums. Trading was moderate as stockpiling demand increased.
(3) Imported copper: On August 21, the average warrant price was up $6/mt from the previous trading day to $93/mt (price range $88-98/mt); the average B/L price was up $7/mt from the previous trading day to $89/mt (price range $83-95/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was down $5/mt from the previous trading day to $45/mt (price range $35-55/mt), with prices referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September.
(4) Secondary copper: On August 21, the futures closing price at 11:30 was 107,570 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 275 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices rose 300 yuan/mt MoM today. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.77, while the procurement sentiment index was flat at 1.88. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,173 yuan/mt, down 214 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,220 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices rebounded, and suppliers of copper scrap sold at higher prices. The procurement sentiment of copper rod enterprises remained unchanged from yesterday, while market availability of copper scrap increased from yesterday.
Price: On the macro front, Trump stated that solving the US high debt problem would mainly rely on economic growth and said he did not instruct Bessent to intervene in the bond market. On the geopolitical front, uncertainties remain in the US-Iran situation. Trump said the shift to an "economic war" against Iran does not mean military options are limited, while Iran warned of a strong response to external threats. However, Iran's president called for an end to the war with the US, and Iran allowed some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling some easing of tensions. Overall, expectations of easing US-Iran tensions coexist with military risks, providing some support to copper prices. On the fundamentals front, on the supply side, domestic and imported cargoes continued to arrive, increasing overall available cargo and further easing the tight spot supply situation. On the demand side, copper prices stayed high, limiting downstream buying interest, with purchases mainly for essential restocking. In summary, copper prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This document does not constitute direct advice on investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]