ADC12 tug-of-war between longs and shorts, prices move sideways [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

[Supply Side Production Cut Expectations and Disruption Intensify, Silicon Metal Prices Continue Strong]: On the market quotation and transaction side, affected by expectations for month-end production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang, silicon enterprises generally have a strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Their quotes increased WoW, and futures-spot traders also raised their quotes following the rise in futures prices, leaving almost no low-priced supply in the market. The center of suppliers' quotations generally increased, while China's downstream users and users outside China show little willingness to chase price rises. Some downstream users have poor acceptance of high prices and mainly place orders on demand for restocking.

[SMM Flash] Criminal organisations in the Amazon are increasingly positioned to expand from illegal gold mining into coltan, cassiterite, lithium, nickel, niobium and rare earth elements as demand grows for minerals used in batteries, semiconductors, defence, AI and clean-energy technologies. Existing networks controlling territory, clandestine airstrips, river routes and money-laundering channels can be adapted to support illicit mineral extraction and trade. In June 2026, Brazil’s Federal Police identified an illegal mining site in Pará where nearly 80 kg of gold was reportedly extracted over three years. The growing concern is that illegally sourced minerals can be mixed with legally mined material and laundered through forged documentation, intermediary companies and cross-border trade, making their origins difficult to detect. In April 2025, Colombian authorities seized nearly 49 tonnes of coltan and tin reportedly extracted from areas controlled by armed groups and destined for illegal export to China. Strengthening mineral traceability, financial intelligence, border controls and international cooperation will therefore be critical to protecting emerging critical-mineral supply chains from criminal infiltration.

China's high carbon ferrochrome (HC FeCr) imports totalled approximately 132,825 tonnes in July 2026, down 9.9% month-on-month from around 147,361 tonnes in June, per Chinese customs data. Kazakhstan retained its position as China's largest HC FeCr supplier in July, shipping approximately 84,429 tonnes, up a marginal 1.2% MoM from June's 83,415 tonnes. With other origins pulling back more sharply, Kazakhstan's share of total imports rose to roughly 63.6%, up from 56.6% in June. Zimbabwe posted the strongest gain among suppliers, with volumes climbing 72.1% MoM to approximately 22,901 tonnes in July from around 13,306 tonnes in June, lifting its import share to roughly 17.2% from 9.0% the previous month. India also grew its share, with shipments up 50.8% MoM to approximately 23,889 tonnes in July from around 15,845 tonnes in June, taking its share of total imports to roughly 18.0% from 10.8%. Imports from other origins fell sharply, down 55.7% MoM to approximately 1,607 tonnes in July from around 3,628 tonnes in June. South Africa recorded no HC FeCr shipments to China in July, a sharp reversal from June's approximately 31,166 tonnes, which had accounted for around 21.2% of that month's total. Overall, July's data shows a rebalancing of China's HC FeCr supply base, with Kazakhstan consolidating its lead while Zimbabwe and India expanded their footholds to help offset South Africa's exit from the month's import mix.