This week, spot lithium carbonate prices first rose and then fell, with an overall drift lower trend. The most-traded contract in the futures market has switched to the 2701 contract, with the price range consolidating from 151,800-157,500 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 149,100-154,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, prices peaked at 157,800 yuan/mt before pulling back and hit a low of 149,100 yuan/mt. Open interest continued to increase, with significant capital inflows into deferred contracts.
Market transactions exhibited a pattern of "active on declines, sluggish on rises." On the upstream side, lithium chemical plants adjusted their spot order selling pace amid price fluctuations: when prices rose, hedging willingness improved and spot sales were slightly active; when prices fell, shipments slowed down. Plants under maintenance mainly relied on long-term contract supply. On the downstream side, material plants primarily made just-in-time procurement at lower levels, with strong purchase intent near 150,000 yuan/mt. Enterprises with just-in-time procurement plans this week concentrated their buying during price pullbacks. However, when prices rose, they lacked willingness to chase highs, and a wait-and-see sentiment grew. Overall, market inquiry sentiment was robust, with actual transaction activity higher during price declines.
Supply side saw a slight production slowdown, with maintenance and production resumptions coexisting. China's lithium carbonate production edged down this week, mainly due to maintenance at salt lake-based lithium chemical plants. Some plants using spodumene and lepidolite gradually resumed production after completing maintenance, while recycling operations maintained a normal production pace. From inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants not under maintenance increased their willingness to sell spot orders amid price consolidation higher; plants undergoing maintenance focused on long-term contract supply, significantly reducing their inventory. Downstream material plants made just-in-time procurement at lower levels, with some enterprises moderately restocking at relatively low prices. Traders' inventory remained generally stable, aligned with upstream spot shipments and downstream just-in-time procurement.
Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are likely to maintain a relatively firm pattern, with key support at the 150,000 yuan/mt level requiring close attention. Subsequent focus should remain on the support strength at the 150,000 yuan/mt whole-number level, changes in downstream restocking pace, and whether destocking at the ore side continues.
![[SMM Analysis] Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Drift Lower, Downstream Makes Cautious Just-in-Time Procurement](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/IpglC20251217171727.jpg)
