Spot Silicon Metal Center Firm, Wafer Prices Maintain Uptrend [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Notes]

SMM, August 19:

Silicon Metal

Price:

Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at around 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at around 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt. The supply side saw many news and expectations around the end of August for large plants in Xinjiang. The bottom support for silicon metal prices strengthened. Silicon enterprises' sentiment in quoting and selling diverged: some quoted firmly and sold at market prices, while some refrained from quoting. Monitor changes in the operating rates of silicon enterprises on the supply side.

Production:

In August, silicon metal production in multiple regions including Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan has expectations for production cuts. Silicon metal production in August is expected to decrease significantly MoM from July. In late August, large plants in the north have a production cut plan. Monitor the implementation of production cuts. Expectations for further narrowing of silicon metal supply in September.

Inventory:

According to SMM statistics, as of August 13, the social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 501,000 mt, decreased by 10,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.). In some regions, cargo pick-up from warehouses continued. Physical inventory in warehouses decreased WoW. In-factory inventory showed accumulation.

Silicone

Price

DMC: The transaction price ranged from 13,000 to 13,500 yuan/mt. Price center moved up WoW. Yesterday, some monomer plants increased their quoted prices again. Transactions were mainly based on downstream rigid demand orders. Monitor the release of downstream orders in late August.

D4: Yesterday, quoted prices were 13,400-13,800 yuan/mt, with an average of about 13,250 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday, quoted prices were 13,500-14,000 yuan/mt, with an average of about 13,500 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: Yesterday, quoted prices were 14,000-14,500 yuan/mt, with an average of about 14,000 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: Yesterday, quoted prices were 14,500-15,500 yuan/mt, with an average of about 15,000 yuan/mt.

Production:

In August, the industry continued to implement coordinated emission reductions, with overall operating rate maintained at around 60%. Some monomer plants underwent maintenance to reduce loads. Monomer plants currently have relatively sufficient order schedules, with some enterprises having orders scheduled from late August to early September.

Inventory:

Currently, monomer plants have relatively sufficient order schedules, and their overall inventory is at a low level.

Polysilicon

Price:

The quoted price for polysilicon N-type recharging material is 39-42 yuan/kg. Currently, manufacturer quoted prices are relatively stable, market transactions are very scarce, some downstream buyers have started to trade with traders, and polysilicon plants continue to wait and see the actual transaction outcomes downstream and in this segment.

Production

In August, polysilicon production continued to increase, and output may break through 110,000 mt. Subsequently, there are production resumption plans for some individual bases.

Inventory:

Currently, upstream inventory continues to accumulate, while trader inventory has decreased as downstream transactions progress.

Wafer

Prices

The market prices are as follows: 18X wafers at 1.105-1.123 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.148-1.153 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.241-1.256 yuan/piece. All wafer sizes maintained an upward trend. Among them, the cell segment has already accepted the 1.15 yuan/piece quote for 210R, and 183 wafers may see further price increases due to tight supply.

Production

According to the latest SMM survey, output was cut by 1-2 GW MoM in August. Although production has been reduced for two consecutive months, the overall level remains relatively high compared to demand. Recently, due to wafer prices falling below cash costs, top-tier players with excessive inventory pressure have chosen to cut production in response. In addition, the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing have been adjusted.

Inventory

Wafer companies' inventory buildup is showing a divergent trend. Top-tier players' inventory has already exceeded reasonable levels. India has started stockpiling, with orders for P-type 18X wafers surging. Furthermore, re-export demand has also increased, and several African countries have joined the ranks of leading exporters.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Currently, domestic inner-layer sand prices are 40,000-46,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices are 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand prices are 15,000-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand prices are 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. The prices for 33-inch quartz crucibles are 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece, and for 36-inch quartz crucibles are 6,500-6,800 yuan/piece. Crucible prices remained generally stable, while quartz sand prices showed slight divergence. Spot order quotes for imported sand have been raised. Recently, crucible manufacturers have increased their demand for high-quality quartz sand, driven by wafer manufacturers' requirements for crucible yield per unit and crystal pulling duration.

Production

In August, China’s planned production of high-purity quartz sand decreased by about 1% MoM, mainly due to the two-month consecutive production cuts in the wafer sector. This has led crucible manufacturers to calculate demand to match supply, and subsequently slowed down the procurement pace of quartz sand. Recently, consumption of consumables such as semiconductor-grade sand and PV quartz plates has seen a slight increase.

Inventory

In August, imported sand inventory continued to increase. In Q3 2026, wafer enterprises will purchase crucibles reasonably based on planned production. Overall quartz sand inventory levels continued to rise.