[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Rose on August 17; At Month-End in July, Broad Money (M2) Grew 7.7% YoY

SMM Nickel News, August 17:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that in 2026 Q2, China recorded a current account surplus of 1,333.7 billion yuan, including a goods trade surplus of 1,906.5 billion yuan, a services trade deficit of 358.4 billion yuan, a primary income deficit of 257.2 billion yuan, and a secondary income surplus of 42.8 billion yuan. In 2026 H1, China recorded a current account surplus of 2,617.4 billion yuan.

(2) The PBOC released financial data for July 2026. In the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 2.225 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period last year. At month-end July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY.

Spot Market:

On August 17, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 129,600 yuan/mt, up 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, while the range for China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

After an early-session surge, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) fluctuated at highs, closing the morning session at 128,850 yuan/mt, up 1.0%.

Driven by factors including a mild cooling in the US July PPI and a further pullback in rate-hike expectations, base metals posted broad gains, and nickel prices rebounded from last week’s lows. Expectations were that Indonesia’s nickel ore RKAB quotas would be looser, but sulfur prices still stayed high above $1,000/mt, leaving cost support intact. In the short term, the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.