Monday, August 17, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $14,108.5/mt on Friday night, dipped to $14,099.5/mt early in the session, then drifted higher with the price center moving up to a high of $14,196/mt, and finally closed at $14,172.5/mt, up 0.26%. Trading volume rose to 13,000 lots, and open interest rose to 269,000 lots, up 3,237 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,920 yuan/mt on Friday night, fell to 107,650 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center moved straight up to a high of 108,320 yuan/mt, after which it stayed high and moved sideways in a narrow range, and finally closed at 108,200 yuan/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 26,000 lots, and open interest fell to 204,000 lots, down 815 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reduced positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On August 14 (Friday), as the expiry of next week’s benchmark contract approached, investors rushed to cover short positions, pushing nearby deliverable copper prices on Friday into the most extreme backwardation structure since 2021. This backwardation structure—where nearby deliverable prices are higher than longer-dated prices—highlighted a severe inventory shortage. The LME spot copper contract’s premium over the three-month copper contract reached $434/mt, up from $45 two weeks earlier. The last time such a high premium was seen was in October 2021, when the price spread once exceeded $1,100. Spot: (1) Shanghai: On the morning of August 14, the SHFE copper 2608 contract opened lower with a gap and then consolidated sideways, with the overall price center pulling back slightly. It opened at 108,550 yuan/mt and then weakened, dipping to 108,060 yuan/mt intraday before rebounding, and closed at 108,250 yuan/mt. The Back price spread between futures contracts ranged from 590 yuan/mt to 700 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 front-month contract ranged from a loss of 1,910 yuan/mt to a loss of 1,800 yuan/mt. In Shanghai, the selling sentiment for copper cathode was 2.56, down 0.83 MoM, while purchasing sentiment was 2.99, up 0.08 MoM; historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, Monday was the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2608 contract, and the Back price spread between the 2608 and 2609 contracts remained at a relatively high level of 590 yuan/mt to 700 yuan/mt. Due to SMM methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, and Monday’s quotes against the 2608 contract are expected to remain at a relatively deep discount; as the pricing benchmark switches to the 2609 contract on Tuesday, spot premiums are expected to show a notable apparent recovery. On the delivery side, as of the morning session close, open interest in the SHFE copper 2608 contract was still about 9,480 lots; as of August 13, SHFE registered warrants of copper stood at 27,200 mt. Some suppliers continued to register deliverable cargoes as warrants, and spot cargoes and warrant cargoes are still expected to be diverted to some extent. Demand side, operating rates at some downstream enterprises recovered, and end-user clients mostly priced on the 2609 contract. Their acceptance center for copper prices moved up compared with the earlier period, with most orders concentrated around 107,000 yuan/mt; however, this level was still some distance from current futures prices, and actual demand release is expected to remain mainly rigid demand. Overall, Shanghai spot copper against the 2608 contract is expected to maintain a deep discount on Monday; after the contract rollover, quotes against the 2609 contract are expected to rebound significantly. Going forward, attention should still be paid to downstream transactions and the flow of deliverable cargoes.
(2) Guangdong: On August 14, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,295 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,155 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Guangdong, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode was 2.18, down 0.03 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment was 2.85, down 0.18 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, with a large price spread between futures contracts and delivery approaching, spot trades were sluggish, and a clear improvement was expected only by this Tuesday.
(3) Imported copper: On August 14, the average warrant price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $90/mt (price range $80-100/mt); the average B/L price fell $5/mt from the previous trading day to $90/mt (price range $80-90/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day to $60/mt (price range $56-68/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from August to early September.
(4) Secondary copper: On August 14, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 108,250 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were -130 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices remained unchanged MoM. The copper scrap selling sentiment index rose to 2.75, while the purchasing sentiment index fell to 1.82. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,561 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,630 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back ahead of the weekend, secondary copper rod enterprises generally purchased as needed, while copper scrap suppliers worried about the risk of a pullback in copper prices outside China over the weekend and were more inclined to secure deals intraday. As a result, secondary copper rod enterprises were able to purchase a small amount of low-priced cargoes in the market.
Prices: On the macro front, the US retail sales MoM unexpectedly turned negative, and the consumer confidence index pulled back for the first time in three months, dragging down the US dollar index. In addition, the market lowered expectations for multiple US Fed rate hikes before mid-2027, jointly providing supportive tailwinds for copper prices. On fundamentals, with delivery approaching on the supply side, some suppliers continued to register cargoes as warrants, tightening circulating cargoes in the market. On the demand side, a slight pullback in copper prices lifted some downstream pricing interest, but as copper prices remained high, downstream purchases were mainly rigid demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to move sideways within a narrow range and hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
