U.S. Economic Data Unexpectedly Pulled Back, Weaker US Dollar Index Supports Copper Prices [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Aug 17, 2026 08:52

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SMM, Aug 18: On Friday night last week, LME copper opened at $14,108.5/mt and dipped to $14,099.5/mt early in the session. The center of copper prices then drifted higher to a high of $14,196/mt, and it finally closed at $14,172.5/mt, up 0.26%. Trading volume rose to 13,000 lots, and open interest rose to 269,000 lots, an increase of 3,237 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added positions. On Friday night last week, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,920 yuan/mt and dipped to 107,650 yuan/mt early in the session. The center of copper prices then moved straight up to a high of 108,320 yuan/mt, before staying high and moving sideways in a narrow range, and it finally closed at 108,200 yuan/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume rose to 26,000 lots, and open interest rose to 204,000 lots, down 815 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reduced positions. On the macro front, US retail sales m/m unexpectedly posted negative growth, and the consumer confidence index pulled back for the first time in three months, sending the US dollar index lower. In addition, the market lowered expectations for multiple US Fed rate hikes before mid-2027, jointly providing supportive tailwinds for copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply side, with delivery approaching, some suppliers continued to register their cargoes as registered warrants, tightening spot availability in the market. Demand side, a slight pullback in copper prices lifted some downstream willingness to price, but as copper prices remained high, downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand. Overall, copper prices were expected to move sideways in a narrow range while holding up well today.

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