As Contract Rollover Approaches, Wait-and-See Sentiment Rises; Market Trading Remains Subdued [SMM North China Spot Copper]

[SMM SHFE Copper Spot] Looking ahead to next week, the intermonth BACK spread has widened significantly, and suppliers' willingness to sell has clearly strengthened, with intraday quotes being lowered repeatedly to facilitate transactions. On the supply side, some imported copper is expected to arrive gradually next week, and available supply in the market may increase. Meanwhile, as the delivery date approaches, near-month contracts are providing relatively strong support, and the intermonth BACK spread is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with the possibility of further widening at certain stages, continuing to weigh on spot premiums. On the demand side, under the current pattern of high copper prices, a wide BACK spread, and spot still trading at a premium, some downstream processing enterprises are showing cautious purchase willingness, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and some buyers inclined to wait for spot premiums to pull back further before purchasing. Overall, with expectations of increasing supply at the margin combined with pressure from the high BACK structure, spot premiums in the Shanghai region are expected to remain under pressure next week, continuing the overall downward trend. Going forward, close attention should be paid to actual arrivals of imported cargoes, changes in the intermonth spread before and after delivery, and downstream restocking at lower prices.

Southwire, the largest wire and cable manufacturer in the US, held a groundbreaking ceremony on October 1 for the expansion of its plant in Starkville, Mississippi, with an investment of $256 million. Upon completion, the plant's monthly cable and wire production is expected to grow by approximately 300%, reaching 15 to 20 million pounds (about 6,800 to 9,100 mt), with full capacity expected to be released in 2028. The expansion is driven by two converging trends: first, utilities accelerating the upgrade of aging power grid infrastructure, and second, the rapid construction of data centers and AI computing facilities driving growth in demand for copper-intensive conductive and power distribution equipment.