US July CPI at 3.4% Met Market Expectations; Tin Price Center Pulled Back, Stimulating Some Rigid Demand [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review for August 13, 2026

Today, tin markets in China and overseas generally moved lower after a higher opening, with price centers pulling back. The most-traded SHFE tin contract (sn2609) opened at 432,860 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 433,980 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifted lower and hit an intraday low of 422,050 yuan/mt. The decline then narrowed slightly, and the morning session closed at 425,070 yuan/mt, down 0.86% from the previous trading day's settlement price. On the LME side, three-month tin is currently quoted at $55,435/mt, down 0.18%.

On the macro front:

(1) Data from the US Department of Labor showed that the July unadjusted CPI annual rate came in at 3.4%, while core CPI rose 2.5% YoY, both in line with market expectations. The steady pullback in inflation data further weakened investor expectations for a US Fed rate hike in September and marginally eased macro policy pressure.

(2) The People's Bank of China released its Q2 2026 monetary policy implementation report, emphasizing that it would continue to implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy. The report proposed that it would use and adjust monetary policy tools in a comprehensive and timely manner to maintain ample liquidity; promptly plan and introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies to strengthen countercyclical adjustment, so as to maintain stable financial market operations and create a mild policy backdrop for the domestic real economy.

Spot market, the notable pullback in the futures price center today made dip-buying the main theme. When the morning futures quickly fell to around 422,050 yuan/mt, some orders were triggered, and trading activity was moderate. However, after some lower-price demand was released, the market overall remained in a wait-and-see mode; combined with the current traditional consumption off-season, large-volume buying remained cautious.

Overall, although the latest US CPI and core CPI data were in line with expectations and inflation cooled somewhat, inflation stickiness remains prominent, and there is still some distance from the US Fed's 2% core target. The data release as scheduled prompted the market to scale back expectations for a resumption of US Fed rate hikes in September, but this only brought a marginal short-term easing of monetary policy. Given relatively limited macro guidance and stable tin fundamentals, the most-traded SHFE tin contract may remain in a range-bound consolidation pattern in the short term. Going forward, two industry fundamental indicators need to be monitored: first, the actual release of data related to ore supply; second, the export pace and volume of ex-China tin ingots in late this month.