Aluminum Alloy Futures and Spot Prices Fell Together; ADC12 to Move Sideways in the Short Term [ADC12 Daily Price Review]

Futures side: The aluminum alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,500 yuan/mt today; after edging slightly higher in early trading, it pulled back under pressure and drifted lower overall, with the decline widening somewhat intraday. It closed at 23,355 yuan/mt at midday, down 1.33%. On the 4-hour chart, it retreated after a rapid rise and formed a long upper shadow candlestick; the previous upward pace was interrupted, near-term overhead resistance became more evident, and the market shifted from a relatively strong tone to a consolidation and correction pattern.

Spot sideAluminum alloy market offers were broadly lower today, with the SMM ADC12 price lowered by 200 yuan/mt. The pullback in futures further dampened spot market sentiment, and enterprises generally followed by lowering their offers. Downstream demand is still in the off-season, with some enterprises still on high-temperature holidays or running at reduced loads; end-user orders and procurement demand are weak, and the spot market lacks sustained upward momentum. Cost side, however, there is still some support: aluminum scrap prices remain relatively high overall, leaving enterprises with relatively limited room to cut prices further. On the upside, the market lacks demand drivers, while on the downside it is constrained by costs. ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways in the near term.

Import side, overseas ADC12 offers have pulled back slightly to $3,090–$3,120/mt, a smaller decline than in China, causing the immediate import loss to widen again to around 1,000 yuan.