[SMM Steel Market Morning News] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): July CPI rose 0.5% YoY, CPI overall maintained a mild increase.

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Macro

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[NBS: July CPI Rose 0.5% YoY, Maintaining Mild Increase Overall]

NBS released data showing that in July, affected by international imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY, and the CPI maintained a mild increase overall. For the January–July average, the national CPI rose 0.9% compared with the same period last year. Demand in some domestic sectors increased, but due to imported and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth rate pulling back 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

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[CITIC Securities: July Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Turn Negative, Rate Hike Expectations Cool]

CITIC Securities' research report pointed out that in July 2026, the US added nonfarm payrolls significantly below expectations, with the government sector being a notable drag, mainly because local government education employment fell in the summer. In terms of private sector composition, the goods-producing sector reduced a total of 135,000 jobs in 2025 but added 105,000 jobs as of the initial July reading this year. The service sector saw a decline in new additions for the fourth consecutive month, which may reflect demand from data center construction and that the World Cup did not boost service employment as expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in July, mainly due to a further decline in the labor force participation rate. We believe the decline in participation is driven by persistent factors such as "aging population + immigration contraction reducing supply," as well as short-term factors from the prime-age population not yet returning to the workforce this summer. Overall, the US labor market remains in a "low-hiring + low-firing" tight balance. After the July nonfarm report, market expectations for a September rate hike were revised downward.

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[China Meteorological Administration Continues to Issue Orange Rainstorm Alert]

The China Meteorological Administration continued to issue an orange rainstorm alert at 06:00 on August 10: It is expected that from 08:00 August 10 to 08:00 August 11, heavy to torrential rain will hit most of Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, northern and central-eastern Hubei, eastern and central-southern Henan, southern Shandong, northeastern Hunan, northern Jiangxi, northern Fujian, as well as western Inner Mongolia, southern Yunnan, southern Hainan Island, and Taiwan Island. Among these, eastern and northern Zhejiang, western Shanghai, southern Jiangsu, central-southern Anhui, southern Henan, and other areas will experience heavy downpours, with extreme rain (250–320 mm) in parts of eastern Zhejiang and the mountainous regions of southern Anhui. The aforementioned areas will be accompanied by short-duration heavy rainfall (maximum hourly precipitation of 20-50 mm, locally exceeding 80 mm), and locally there will be severe convective weather such as thunderstorms and gales.

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Industries and Downstream

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[Major Projects Accelerated, Boosting Investment and Stabilizing Growth]

Since the beginning of this year, a number of major projects, including the “six networks,” have been accelerated, providing strong support for expanding investment and stabilizing growth. Experts expect that to ensure project planning, reserve and factor support, multiple funding sources, including local government special bonds and new-type policy financial instruments, are expected to be released and utilized more quickly. In addition, relevant authorities will strengthen planning guidance, and the effects of a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand will continue to be released, creating a favorable environment for private investment.

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[Jiangsu Issues Yellow Rainstorm Warning; Six Cities Activate Level III Flood Control Emergency Response]

The Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory upgraded and issued a yellow rainstorm warning at 13:00 on August 9, 2026: It was expected that from that afternoon to the next day, areas including Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nantong, and Zhenjiang would experience heavy rainfall with hourly precipitation reaching 50 mm or 24-hour precipitation reaching 150 mm or above. A reporter learned from the Jiangsu Provincial Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters that, starting from 14:00 on August 9, 2026, in response to the yellow rainstorm warning issued by the meteorological observatory, a Level III flood control emergency response was activated for the six cities of Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nantong, and Zhenjiang. Jiangsu required all levels of government and relevant departments in the affected areas to closely monitor rainfall and water conditions, strengthen emergency duty and analysis, enhance risk control, prepare for flood control and drainage emergency response, and decisively organize the evacuation of people from risky areas.

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Other Hot Topics

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⭕[Ample Monetary Policy Instruments; Incremental Measures Expected to Be Introduced in Due Course] As the annual economic operation has reached a critical juncture connecting the first and second halves of the year, how monetary policy will be strengthened has drawn attention. Unexpected statements from policy makers such as “timely adjustment” and “incremental policies” have expanded the imagination space for monetary policy. Since late July, DR benchmark interest rate loans have been launched, comprehensive financing costs for personal loans have been disclosed, and a series of reform measures in the monetary and financial sector have been introduced successively. Analysts believe that China’s monetary policy toolkit has ample reserves, various instruments will work in coordination to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, and incremental measures are expected to be introduced in due course.

⭕[Affected by Typhoon “Baihaitun,” Nearly 40% of Flights at Shanghai’s Two Major Airports to Be Reduced or Canceled Tomorrow] According to the Shanghai Airport Group, affected by this year’s 13th typhoon “Baihaitun,” the capacity at Shanghai Pudong Airport and Hongqiao Airport will decline tomorrow (the 10th), and nearly 40% of port departures and arrivals flights will be reduced or canceled. Two airports planned to cancel a total of 943 inbound and outbound flights, of which Pudong Airport canceled 642 and Hongqiao Airport canceled 301. Passengers are advised to promptly check with their airlines for the latest flight updates and plan their travel accordingly.

⭕ [Iranian Foreign Minister Emphasizes Strait of Hormuz Has Not Reopened] Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on August 9 local time that Iran is in consultations with Oman on adjusting the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz, and the discussions have now entered the final stage. He also emphasized that even if an agreement on the lane adjustment is reached, it does not mean the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened; the reopening of the strait still requires a series of conditions to be met. Araghchi said that the two sides are currently discussing replacing the existing lane with a new one, and relevant experts are carrying out technical work.

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