China's Secondary Aluminum Alloy Ingot Inventory Down 30 mt to 7,590 mt

Adani Group and Abu Dhabi International Holding Company (IHC), each holding a 50% stake, have jointly established a joint venture and plan to build a large-scale integrated aluminum industrial park in Rayagada, Odisha, India, with a total investment of $11.5 billion. The industrial park will include an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 4 million mt, aluminum smelting facilities with a capacity of 2 million mt, and an aluminum deep processing base with a capacity of 1 million mt. It will be implemented in two phases: Phase I with an investment of $6.9 billion and Phase II with $4.6 billion. The project will also include the construction of a 4,000 MW captive coal-fired power plant and a 400 MW renewable energy unit. The joint venture has signed a long-term bauxite supply agreement with Odisha Mining Corporation. Regulatory approvals are expected to take 12 to 18 months, after which Phase I is expected to come on stream within 3 to 3.5 years, and the entire project is expected to be completed and operational within 4 to 5 years. During construction, it is expected to provide 35,000 temporary jobs, and upon commissioning, it will create 18,500 permanent jobs.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cast Aluminum Consolidates at Highs, ADC12 Moves Sideways Amid Tug-of-War between Longs and Shorts] In the short term, ADC12 prices still face some downward pressure, but cost support remains, and prices are expected to mainly move sideways.

[Aluminum Inventory Buildup and Long-Term Capacity Commissioning; Geopolitical Premium Underpins Aluminum Price Rebound with Limited Room] Overall, the macro front has improved recently. The marginal constraint on the non-ferrous metals sector from expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes staying put has weakened. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China has continued to rise, and the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East persists. These factors have jointly underpinned aluminum prices, and short-term market confidence has recovered somewhat. However, long-term aluminum capacity continues to come online outside China, traditional end-use demand in China remains weak during the traditional off-season, coupled with fluctuating expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes outside China and ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical situation. Aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside resistance remains.