SMM, July 31:
According to SMM statistics, total overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China fell approximately 1.0% YoY in July 2026, while rising about 25.0% MoM. July saw a notable recovery-driven increase in alumina supply outside China, as capacity previously constrained by the Middle East situation, hurricanes, and unplanned production cuts was restored to varying degrees. Enterprises in the Middle East gradually resumed production, disrupted capacity in the Atlantic region also recovered step by step, and an Indian enterprise slowly ramped up production.
By enterprise and region:
Jamaica is emerging from its 2025 trough. The government expects that as post-Hurricane Melissa reconstruction advances, bauxite and alumina export revenue will grow 24% YoY to $760 million in 2026, though this remains below the $803.4 million recorded in 2024. In Q1 2026, Jamaica’s alumina production fell 30.3% YoY to 267,060 mt, bauxite production dropped 26.4% YoY to 415,143 mt, and exports contracted in tandem; against a low base, the recovery in July provided a certain supplement to supply outside China.
In Southeast Asia, the Indonesian presidential office recently called for stronger oversight. Exports have been hindered because some alumina contains rare earth elements, yet Indonesia has not introduced regulations on rare earth content. This policy uncertainty could cause disruptions to subsequent exports.
In the Middle East, EGA restarted the alumina refinery at its Al Taweelah site on July 10 and expects to restore 50% capacity within a few days, aiming for full technical capability by year-end. The refinery produced 2.4 million mt of alumina in 2025. However, the production resumption at the Bahrain aluminum smelter remains unclear and the Qatar aluminum smelter is still running at 60% capacity, with geopolitical risks yet to recede.
Elsewhere, South32’s FY2026 report showed that its Brazilian alumina production grew 5.3% YoY to 1.4 million mt, and the company reaffirmed its plan to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa for about $5.6 billion, with the transaction expected to close in H2 2027.
Looking ahead to August, the supply of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China is expected to continue recovering, trending broadly looser. Production resumptions in the Middle East, improving raw material conditions in Indonesia, and capacity restoration in India and the Atlantic region will contribute growth. However, the Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and uncertainties linked to Indonesia’s rare earth regulatory policy and quota issues, along with European sanctions, could still cause disruptions, leaving some supply-side uncertainty in place.
(The above information is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not rely on this article as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decision made by a client shall have no connection to Shanghai Metals Market.)
Data source: SMM
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