At the June 2026 Davos Forum, Robin Zeng assessed all‑solid‑state batteries as “currently only at Level 4” using the TRL (Technology Readiness Level, 1–9) scale. On July 29, in a reply on the interactive investor platform (HuDongYi), CATL stated that “small‑batch production is expected in 2027.” These two statements, separated by 36 days, were interpreted by the market as a “self‑correction,” but in fact they refer to different evaluation frameworks: the former anchors technical route maturity (TRL), while the latter anchors manufacturing maturity targets (MRL 7–8). Combined with Chief Scientist Wu Kai’s earlier public target of “reaching Level 7–8 by 2027,” the pace of CATL’s 2 GWh pilot line in Yibin, and SMM’s industry chain tracking, the 2027 small‑batch trial production does not conflict with the view that “mass deployment of millions of units before 2030 is difficult.” The all‑solid‑state industrialization is still in the transition phase from “pilot verification to demonstration mass production.” The industry consensus timeline remains: 2026 – semi‑solid (solid‑liquid hybrid) battery installation in vehicles; 2027 – small‑batch all‑solid‑state; post‑2030 – large‑scale commercial deployment.
Preface:
The main theme of the solid‑state battery industry in 2026 is shifting from “sample competition” to “pilot‑line and vehicle integration sprint.” While thousand‑ton‑scale sulfide electrolyte capacity comes online, demand for dry‑electrode equipment rises, and leading battery manufacturers are rolling out 20–60 Ah cells, the engineering challenges for all‑solid‑state – such as solid‑solid interfacial impedance, sulfide H₂S handling, and lamination/isostatic pressing yield – remain unresolved. Against this backdrop, the simultaneous appearance of “cooling‑down” remarks and “timeline confirmations” from leading companies is itself a signal that industrialization has entered deep waters.
I. Two Statements: Different Coordinate Systems, Not a Reversal of Progress
Davos (June 23, Robin Zeng): On the TRL 1–9 scale, all‑solid‑state is currently about TRL‑4, i.e., laboratory principle prototype verification, not yet crossing into system‑level engineering validation. He explicitly distinguished three barriers: “technology route / product route / commercial route,” and stated that the probability of million‑unit vehicle installation before 2030 is very small.
Interactive platform (July 29, CATL): CATL continues to invest firmly in all‑solid‑state, its technology is at the industry’s leading level, and small‑batch production is expected in 2027.
Bridge (Wu Kai’s earlier statement): Using the “technology and manufacturing readiness level (1–9)” scale, CATL targets reaching Level 7–8 by 2027 – Level 7 corresponds to “system prototype validation in a typical environment,” and Level 8 corresponds to “process finalisation and capability for small‑batch production,” which is precisely the entry point for small‑batch trial production.
SMM perspective: TRL‑4 is “where we are now,” and MRL 7–8 is “where we aim to be next year.” What lies in between is the equipment commissioning of the Yibin pilot line in the second half of 2026, yield ramp‑up for lamination, and A‑sample/B‑sample validation with OEMs – not a technological leap within 36 days.
II. Cross‑Validation of Industrial Cadence: 2027 Small‑Batch ≠ 2027 Volume Production
CATL side: The Yibin base plans approximately 2 GWh pilot/trial production lines, with equipment commissioning in the second half of 2026 and small‑batch trial production in 2027 – consistent with the “no million‑unit installation before 2030” view.
Peer benchmarks: BYD – “small‑batch in 2027, large‑scale in 2030”; SAIC + Qingtao – small‑batch delivery in 2027; Samsung SDI SolidStack – plans mass production in the second half of 2027; Academician Ouyang Minggao – “test vehicles by end‑2026 to 2027, mass production will take another 3‑5 years.”
Semi‑solid (hybrid) as a forerunner: 2026 has been defined by SMM as the first year for semi‑solid (solid‑liquid hybrid) battery installation in vehicles. MG, SAIC, CALB and others are delivering hybrid cells with energy densities around 400 Wh/kg at scale, playing a dual role of “transitional cash flow + process rehearsal for all‑solid‑state.”
In other words, the “small‑batch” that the industry will see in 2027 is more likely to be A/B samples for premium vehicles, special applications (eVTOL/robotics), or limited deployments in flagship models – not mass‑market penetration.
III. Source of Market Volatility: Asymmetric Expectation Management
The interactive platform reply only mentioned “small‑batch in 2027” without reiterating “difficulty in large‑scale installation before 2030.” After information truncation, it was easily interpreted unilaterally as positive news. Conversely, the Davos “Level 4” comment was truncated and read as negative.
SMM observed the same pattern in the two solid‑state battery sentiment cycles in March and July: each time sample companies issued “cooling” remarks or “timeline confirmations,” sector volatility amplified for 2‑3 trading days, but on the industrial side, pilot‑line tenders and tonne‑level electrolyte procurement showed no concurrent jumps.
Investor anxiety essentially stems from three points:
The timelines of various players are interlocking and lack a unified acceptance standard;
Conflating “small‑batch” with a “commercialisation inflection point”;
Ignoring that in the TRL→MRL→CRL (Commercial Readiness Level) three‑stage leap, the last two stages (supply chain cost, after‑sales, recycling) are no less difficult than the first.
IV. Why “Calmness” Itself Constitutes a Barrier
The engineering threshold for sulfide all‑solid‑state lies not in formulation but in manufacturing:
Solid‑solid interfacial contact impedance requires nano‑structured composite cathodes + 3D conductive networks;
Sulfides are sensitive to moisture and oxygen; H₂S suppression relies on coating/doping with fluorine salts (CATL WIPO patent direction);
The yield and tact time of warm isostatic pressing (about several thousand atmospheres) after lamination will determine whether the cost of small‑batch production in 2027 can be compressed to within 1 RMB/Wh (currently very challenging; according to SMM forecasts, sulfide solid‑state battery costs will break through 1 RMB/Wh around 2031‑2032. Of course, given China’s industrialisation capability, earlier breakthroughs are quite possible, but 2027 is still not mature enough).
Before these variables are closed, pre‑emptively shouting “mass production” does not change the yield curve. By pinning the current status at TRL‑4 and the target at MRL 7‑8 by 2027, CATL provides a trackable milestone roadmap: pilot‑line commissioning in the second half of 2026 → small‑batch A‑sample installation in 2027 → product route closure in 2028‑2029 → commercial route ramp‑up after 2030. This “disclosure by maturity level” approach aligns with SMM’s three‑phase framework: “2026 validation year, 2027 demonstration year, post‑2030 commercial year.”
Summary:
Robin Zeng’s “Level 4” and the interactive platform’s “2027 small‑batch” are not contradictory signals, but rather projections of the same roadmap under the two coordinate systems of TRL and MRL. The current industry position for all‑solid‑state batteries is: technology side climbing from TRL‑4 to TRL‑5/6; manufacturing side targeting MRL 7‑8 in 2027; commercial side not yet economically viable for million‑unit scale before 2030. For the industry chain, the real trackable indicators in 2026 are not “who yells mass production first,” but rather: tonne‑level sulfide electrolyte prices (SMM currently tracks LPSC at 5,000 RMB/kg at the kilogram scale and about 3,000 RMB/kg at the tonne scale), pilot‑line lamination yield, and the number of B‑sample fixed‑point awards from leading OEMs. These three things are closer to the truth of industrialisation than any “Level” number.
Terminology Explanation:
TRL (Technology Readiness Level)
MRL (Manufacturing Readiness Level)
CRL (Commercial Readiness Level)
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Phone: 021-20707860 (or WeChat: 13585549799)
Contact: Chaoxing Yang. Thank you!
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