SMM July 30 news:
Price review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,707.36 yuan/mt, down 6.01 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday. Among regions, Shandong reported 2,700-2,750 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday; Henan reported 2,720-2,780 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; Shanxi reported 2,720-2,760 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt; Guangxi reported 2,600-2,670 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt; and Guizhou reported 2,760-2,800 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous Thursday.
Markets outside China: As of July 30, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $346/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $34.15/mt and a USD/CNY selling rate around 6.78. This translated to a selling price at major Chinese ports of about 2,991.45 yuan/mt, which was 284.09 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. One ex-China spot alumina transaction was heard this week, with details as follows:
(1) On July 27, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded ex-China at $332/mt FOB Indonesia, for loading between end-July and early August.
China: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, total built capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 88.43 million mt/year. The national weekly operating rate fell 0.36 percentage point WoW to 74.68%. Specifically, Shandong’s weekly operating rate edged down 0.02 ppt WoW to 89.29%; Shanxi’s rose 0.26 ppt WoW to 63.72%; Henan’s dropped 4.83 ppt WoW to 53.16%; Guangxi’s increased 2.47 ppt WoW to 81.34%; Guizhou’s decreased 2.53 ppt WoW to 83.47%.
In the spot market, three deals were done this week. Gansu procured 20,000 mt of spot alumina, with delivered prices of 2,930 yuan/mt and 2,880 yuan/mt. Qinghai saw a 10,000 mt spot alumina deal at a delivered price of 2,900 yuan/mt. Yunnan purchased 5,000 mt of spot alumina at an EXW price of 2,600 yuan/mt.
Alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the overall market deeply bearish and prices still having downside room. This morning, the most-traded futures contract dropped to a low of 2,610 yuan/mt. In the short term, the round 2,600 yuan/mt mark provided some support, but in the long term, futures prices could break below 2,600 yuan/mt. Supply side, alumina production edged down this week, mainly because enterprises in different regions conducted scheduled maintenance, leading to a slight contraction in overall output, though the decline was limited. Inventory performance was mixed: aluminum smelters' raw material inventory rose 7,000 mt WoW to 3.387 million mt, as some smelters deemed current prices had fallen to a relatively low level after the sustained decline in alumina prices and began to buy moderate volumes to restock; alumina refineries' finished product inventories fell 18,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with destocking taking place as refineries consumed in-factory inventory for downstream deliveries during maintenance. Warrant inventory increased 23,000 mt WoW to 254,000 mt, as some enterprises opted to ship to delivery warehouses. Notably, port inventory surged 111,000 mt to 945,000 mt this week. Although some cargoes entered bonded areas and are not yet flowing into the Chinese market, the overall import volume is still rising, exerting significant pressure on the Chinese market. In markets outside China, Indonesia restricted shipments due to rare earth elements in some alumina, causing short-term disruption to ex-China supply, but the Indonesian alumina traded last week is expected to be unaffected. Additionally, impacted by a hurricane, Jamaica's alumina production stood at 267,100 mt in Q1 2026, down 30.3% YoY, and is expected to gradually recover in Q2 and Q3. Overall ex-China alumina prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs in the near term. Looking ahead to next week, domestic spot prices will likely extend their decline, as spot premiums over futures still have some room to compress and downward pressure has not been fully released; the futures market will likely consolidate on a weak note, with near-term attention on support at 2,600 yuan/mt, while medium and long-term downside risks remain. On the inventory front, as some alumina refineries complete maintenance and production gradually recovers, the cumulative effect on the supply side will continue to intensify market pressure, and domestic inventory is expected to see further inventory buildup next week.
[All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]
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