【SMM Analysis】Ternary Cathode Orders Show Stable Growth in August

Zimbabwe's mineral exports hit US$5.73 billion in H1 2026, with lithium emerging as the standout growth driver alongside gold and PGMs. But the broader mineral base is crumbling Q1 2026 output collapsed across chrome, cobalt, copper, nickel and diamond, leaving lithium shouldering an outsized share of the boom. Outlook: Producing and exporting minerals will not make a country rich. It is industry that creates employment and value. Morgan & Co's Kudakwashe Taimo warns the growth is driven more by favourable prices and a few dominant commodities than by broad-based expansion. Zimbabwe's lithium moment is real but unless the country moves up the value chain into battery-grade processing and downstream manufacturing, it risks exporting tomorrow's strategic advantage as raw ore today.

Global lithium prices are projected to soften through the second half of 2026 as supply growth continues to outpace demand, with the market seen shifting into a modest surplus as early as 2027 following a slight deficit this year. The pullback comes as Africa's rapidly expanding output adds meaningfully to global supply, raising questions over whether governments and producers across Mali, the DRC, Ghana and Zimbabwe will capture the revenue levels their new-mine projections were originally built around. Chinese battery-grade lithium carbonate remains well below the cycle's 2022 peak, when prices topped $80,000/t before collapsing through 2023 and beginning to recover in 2025. A rally pushed futures above 200,000 yuan (roughly $29,400/t) in mid-May 2026, but prices have since retreated: CIF Asia carbonate assessments stood at $18,160/t as of August 10, down from $19,250/t at end-July, while spodumene assessments slipped to $2,000/t from $2,069/t over the same period. Global lithium production is forecast to grow 13.2% in 2026 versus demand growth of just 5.8%, a sharp deceleration from 18.5% demand growth in 2025 a gap industry analysts say is driving the market from an estimated 3% supply deficit this year toward a slight surplus in 2027. Africa's contribution to that supply build is substantial. According to the International Energy Agency, the continent's lithium mine production rose 44% in 2025, lifting its share of global supply to 14%. Existing output from Mali and Zimbabwe has this year been joined by new volumes from the DRC's Manono project, where Zijin has begun exporting lithium, with Ghana's Ewoyaa project also expected to add regional supply going forward. Zimbabwe's Q1 2026 figures illustrate the price sensitivity facing African producers directly: lithium export volumes rose about 7% year-on-year, to 240,826 tonnes from 224,610 tonnes, while export value more than doubled to $178.6 million from $84.2 million a dynamic that could reverse in force as prices soften into H2. Unlike cobalt, where the DRC's dominance of over 70% of global supply has given it real pricing leverage through export restrictions, African lithium producers currently lack comparable market power individually or collectively to influence global prices directly. That leaves beneficiation as the primary lever available to capture additional value ahead of export a strategy already underway in Zimbabwe, which plans to ban concentrate exports from January 2027 and has begun shipping its first lithium sulphate volumes. SMM View: The timing is notable Zimbabwe's beneficiation push and concentrate export ban arrive just as the global lithium market is expected to swing back into surplus, meaning downstream capacity built on higher price assumptions may need to prove its economics in a softer pricing environment. For Mali, the DRC and Ghana, where new capacity is either ramping or approaching first production, the coming months will be a key test of whether revenue projections underpinning these projects still hold as prices normalize lower. SMM will continue monitoring African spodumene and lithium salts supply growth against the shifting global demand backdrop, alongside downstream processing progress across Zimbabwe's beneficiation pipeline.

Kamativi Mining Company (KMC) has told Zimbabwean lawmakers that individual mine economics and resource life must be factored into the country's lithium beneficiation policy, warning that processing mandates need to align with the geological realities of each operation. KMC Chief Operating Officer Turkey Liang made the comments before the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Mines and Mining Development during a fact-finding visit to the company's Kamativi site in Matabeleland North. Liang said KMC backs the government's drive to end unprocessed lithium exports but cautioned that mines vary in resource profile and may not all support large-scale downstream investment on the same timeline. Kamativi, a former tin mine that closed in 1994, was revived as a lithium operation. KMC's current mining plan carries a high stripping ratio and limited surface resources: open-pit reserves are estimated to support around five years of mining, while the broader lithium resource at current depths could sustain roughly 10 years of extraction before requiring a shift to underground mining. The company's resource estimate, updated May 2024, stands at 24.2 million tonnes grading 1.25% Li2O. Despite the constraints, KMC is proceeding with its US$200 million lithium sulphate project, converting spodumene concentrate into lithium sulphate at a planned capacity of 75,000 t/yr, with commissioning targeted for July 2027. The company is also pursuing further mineral recovery from its pegmatite resource beyond lithium, including projects still in development. Liang cited regulatory friction affecting the sulphate project's cash flow: a Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA) change to export documentation shifting from a single document covering up to 50 trucks to individual paperwork per truck created processing delays severe enough that KMC was running low on cash and considering production cuts in March. ZIMRA has since reverted to the 50-truck arrangement. SMM View: KMC's testimony highlights a structural tension in Zimbabwe's lithium beneficiation drive as the January 2027 concentrate export ban approaches mandatory local processing only creates durable value if feedstock life supports the capital cost of the plant. With Kamativi's open-pit mine life estimated at roughly five years against a 75,000 t/yr lithium sulphate facility targeting mid-2027 commissioning, the underlying resource base and the eventual pivot to underground mining will be a key variable in whether Zimbabwe's downstream lithium salts capacity delivers on its beneficiation targets. SMM will continue tracking Kamativi's sulphate project timeline alongside peer sulphate builds elsewhere in Zimbabwe's lithium sector.