[SMM Analysis] Kamativi Miner Flags Resource Constraints as Beneficiation Timeline Tightens

Zimbabwe's mineral exports hit US$5.73 billion in H1 2026, with lithium emerging as the standout growth driver alongside gold and PGMs. But the broader mineral base is crumbling Q1 2026 output collapsed across chrome, cobalt, copper, nickel and diamond, leaving lithium shouldering an outsized share of the boom. Outlook: Producing and exporting minerals will not make a country rich. It is industry that creates employment and value. Morgan & Co's Kudakwashe Taimo warns the growth is driven more by favourable prices and a few dominant commodities than by broad-based expansion. Zimbabwe's lithium moment is real but unless the country moves up the value chain into battery-grade processing and downstream manufacturing, it risks exporting tomorrow's strategic advantage as raw ore today.

Global lithium prices are projected to soften through the second half of 2026 as supply growth continues to outpace demand, with the market seen shifting into a modest surplus as early as 2027 following a slight deficit this year. The pullback comes as Africa's rapidly expanding output adds meaningfully to global supply, raising questions over whether governments and producers across Mali, the DRC, Ghana and Zimbabwe will capture the revenue levels their new-mine projections were originally built around. Chinese battery-grade lithium carbonate remains well below the cycle's 2022 peak, when prices topped $80,000/t before collapsing through 2023 and beginning to recover in 2025. A rally pushed futures above 200,000 yuan (roughly $29,400/t) in mid-May 2026, but prices have since retreated: CIF Asia carbonate assessments stood at $18,160/t as of August 10, down from $19,250/t at end-July, while spodumene assessments slipped to $2,000/t from $2,069/t over the same period. Global lithium production is forecast to grow 13.2% in 2026 versus demand growth of just 5.8%, a sharp deceleration from 18.5% demand growth in 2025 a gap industry analysts say is driving the market from an estimated 3% supply deficit this year toward a slight surplus in 2027. Africa's contribution to that supply build is substantial. According to the International Energy Agency, the continent's lithium mine production rose 44% in 2025, lifting its share of global supply to 14%. Existing output from Mali and Zimbabwe has this year been joined by new volumes from the DRC's Manono project, where Zijin has begun exporting lithium, with Ghana's Ewoyaa project also expected to add regional supply going forward. Zimbabwe's Q1 2026 figures illustrate the price sensitivity facing African producers directly: lithium export volumes rose about 7% year-on-year, to 240,826 tonnes from 224,610 tonnes, while export value more than doubled to $178.6 million from $84.2 million a dynamic that could reverse in force as prices soften into H2. Unlike cobalt, where the DRC's dominance of over 70% of global supply has given it real pricing leverage through export restrictions, African lithium producers currently lack comparable market power individually or collectively to influence global prices directly. That leaves beneficiation as the primary lever available to capture additional value ahead of export a strategy already underway in Zimbabwe, which plans to ban concentrate exports from January 2027 and has begun shipping its first lithium sulphate volumes. SMM View: The timing is notable Zimbabwe's beneficiation push and concentrate export ban arrive just as the global lithium market is expected to swing back into surplus, meaning downstream capacity built on higher price assumptions may need to prove its economics in a softer pricing environment. For Mali, the DRC and Ghana, where new capacity is either ramping or approaching first production, the coming months will be a key test of whether revenue projections underpinning these projects still hold as prices normalize lower. SMM will continue monitoring African spodumene and lithium salts supply growth against the shifting global demand backdrop, alongside downstream processing progress across Zimbabwe's beneficiation pipeline.

SMM battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices drifted lower today compared to the previous working day. The lithium carbonate 2701 contract opened lower at 154,400 yuan/mt, then moved lower amid fluctuations. During the morning session, it fluctuated between 151,000 and 153,000 yuan/mt, rebounding at times but failing to break above the average price line. Near midday, bears continued to pressure the market, causing prices to drift lower. In the afternoon, it accelerated down to 149,100 yuan/mt, hitting a new intraday low, before rebounding slightly. In the late session, it moved sideways in a narrow range of 150,500–150,700 yuan/mt, eventually closing down 3.01% at 150,700 yuan/mt, with open interest increasing by 4,347 lots. In the spot market, the drifting lower lithium carbonate prices significantly bolstered downstream willingness to restock at lower prices. Some downstream enterprises with plans for just-in-time procurement this week, who had remained on the sidelines in previous sessions due to relatively high-level prices, concentrated their buying volume release today during the price correction window. Upstream, the pace of spot order shipments from lithium chemical plants remained stable, and plants undergoing maintenance continued to prioritize fulfilling long-term contract orders to secure supply. Overall, the market inquiry atmosphere was heated, and actual trading activity was relatively high.