July 29 SMM Rare Earth Afternoon Trading Comment

[Pr-Nd series continued to recover but transaction cooled down near the weekend, medium-heavy rare earth held up well, and magnetic materials saw limited growth following the price rise.] Currently, the overall circulation frequency of rare earth ore remains poor, market trading is stagnant, and weak oxide prices have caused a downward shift in the center of actual transaction prices of rare earth ore.

On August 13, 2026, the Ministry of Heavy Industries of India officially launched the technical bid evaluation for the "Sintered Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Manufacturing Promotion Plan" (REPM), with 20 bids vying for up to five licenses. On the surface, it appears to be a fierce "20-for-5" competition, but when examining the industry's fundamentals, the real protagonist of this story is not the 72.8 billion rupees (about $765 million) in subsidies, but the "three clocks" running simultaneously in India—the policy clock is already pointing to mass production in 2028, the commercialization clock of state-owned enterprise IREL points to 2029–2030, and the certification clock of downstream clients is measured in "years." The desynchronization of these three clocks is the most intuitive footnote to the fact that it is still too early for India's rare earth industry chain to develop.