"Export Boom" Pulse Peaks, SHFE/LME Price Ratio Recovery Pressures H2 Aluminum Foil Exports [SMM Analysis]

SMM, July 27, 2026:

According to the latest data from China’s General Administration of Customs, China’s cumulative exports of aluminum foil (HS code 7607-series) reached 683,200 mt from January to June 2026, with a total export value of approximately $1.479 billion. Single-month exports hit 131,000 mt in June, the peak for H1, up 9.70% MoM and 24% YoY. The sharp rise in June exports was primarily driven by overseas clients locking in export orders early when the SHFE/LME price ratio was still in an expansionary phase, boosting monthly shipments.

In terms of product structure, rolled but not further worked aluminum foil, not backed (0.01mm < thickness ≤ 0.2mm) was the dominant variety exported in H1, with exports reaching 263,700 mt, accounting for 38.6%. This was followed by other non-backed aluminum foil (21.4%) and ultra-thin foil with a thickness ≤0.007mm (20.9%).

By export destination, Thailand ranked first with 64,200 mt in H1 2026, followed by Indonesia (53,900 mt) and India (52,400 mt). Notably, combined exports to the Middle East (UAE + Saudi Arabia) totaled 70,100 mt, representing 10.3% of total H1 exports, establishing the region as an important destination cluster for Chinese aluminum foil exports. Looking at monthly trends, exports to the UAE rose gradually from 2,515 mt in March to 5,383 mt in June; Saudi Arabia saw an increase from 4,868 mt in March to 7,568 mt in June.

By export registration region, Jiangsu Province firmly held the top spot with 171,800 mt, accounting for 25.1% of total H1 exports. Shandong Province (76,300 mt), Henan Province (74,300 mt), Shanghai Municipality (73,300 mt), and Zhejiang Province (66,700 mt) rounded out the top five, with the five regions together accounting for 54.9%.

Since late June, the SHFE/LME price ratio has rapidly recovered, causing the export arbitrage window for aluminum semis to slam shut. This change also directly suppressed new export orders for aluminum foil. The pullback in aluminum prices weakened downstream willingness to pick up cargoes, delaying the production schedule for some stockpiling orders. However, previously booked fixed-price model orders are still being executed as planned, providing some support for current export volumes. According to SMM's survey, the production schedule for orders at aluminum foil export enterprises has now been extended into September. Faced with narrowing price spreads between Chinese and overseas markets and compressed export profits, enterprises have shown strong price rigidity in negotiations for new orders for October-November, with no intention of taking orders at lower prices. If the SHFE/LME ratio remains unfavorable for exports, new order signings for Q4 may decline significantly.

Based on a comprehensive assessment, SMM maintains its forecast of China’s total aluminum foil exports at approximately 1.3 million mt for 2026. With 683,200 mt already achieved in H1, about 616,800 mt remains to be completed in H2, averaging around 102,800 mt per month—down 9.7% from the H1 monthly average of 113,900 mt. This target is somewhat challenging under the current SHFE/LME price ratio environment, but considering the execution momentum of already locked-in orders, the full-year goal of 1.3 million mt remains highly achievable.