SMM, July 24:
Customs data shows that China's cumulative zinc concentrate imports reached 2.7616 million mt in January-June 2026, up 8.98% YoY, edging up overall compared to last year.
I. H1 Import Zinc Concentrate Market Review: DRC Emerges as Main Growth Driver
By source country, China’s zinc concentrate imports in H1 2026 remained concentrated from Peru, Australia, and Russia. Imports from Peru totaled 554,700 mt, accounting for 20% of the total; Australia, 499,000 mt, 18%; and Russia, 283,200 mt, 10.3%. These three countries combined accounted for nearly half of China’s total imports.
Compared to the same period last year, DRC became the largest contributor to import growth in H1, with cumulative imports up 92,300 mt YoY, representing the bulk of China's zinc concentrate import increase. In addition, imports from Peru, Russia, and Mexico saw varying degrees of increase, supplementing China’s import supply. In contrast, Australian imports fell 40,200 mt YoY, becoming the primary source of decline.
II. H1 Import Zinc Concentrate Market Review: Sustained Smelting Demand Growth Supports YoY Import Increase
From a domestic supply-demand pattern perspective, China’s zinc concentrate supply continued to grow in H1 2026, but new supply was mainly concentrated in a few large mines.
According to SMM statistics, domestic zinc concentrate production grew roughly 6.5% YoY cumulatively in January-June 2026, a significant increase. However, looking at the incremental structure, new H1 production was primarily contributed by the Huoshaoyun mine, while most remaining new mine capacities will be gradually released in H2. Meanwhile, due to declining raw ore grades at some mature mines, domestic zinc concentrate production pulled back YoY in certain regions. Therefore, aside from the Huoshaoyun mine, the incremental supply actually circulating in the Chinese market was relatively limited.
Demand side, China’s zinc smelting capacity has continued expanding in recent years, with some new smelting projects commissioned in 2025 continuing to ramp up production this year. Additionally, some new smelting capacities came online in H1, further boosting consumption demand for zinc concentrates in China. SMM data shows that domestic refined zinc production increased roughly 4% YoY in January-June 2026, with raw material demand from the smelting sector maintaining a growth trajectory.
Against the backdrop of limited incremental domestic ore and continuously expanding smelting demand, imported zinc concentrates became a vital source to supplement domestic raw material supply, thus sustaining YoY import growth in H1.
III. H2 Market Outlook: H2 Imported Zinc Concentrate Volumes Face Downside Risks
Looking ahead to H2, China’s zinc concentrate imports are expected to show little growth and may even face some downside risks.
On one hand, the global zinc concentrate supply-demand pattern has tightened again, with TCs continuing to decline rapidly and domestic smelting profits being significantly squeezed. According to SMM calculations, as of July 23, without considering sulphuric acid and associated minor metal revenues, the cash profit from China’s zinc smelting had already recorded a loss of over 4,000 yuan/mt; even factoring in the revenues from sulphuric acid and associated metals, the overall profits of smelters in most regions of China have now generally fallen into negative territory. At the same time, Q3 is traditionally a maintenance season for China’s zinc smelting industry, and overall market demand for concentrates has weakened somewhat.
On the other hand, since mid-2025, the import window for zinc concentrates has remained closed, with the SHFE/LME price ratio staying at a low level for a long time, making it difficult for imported resources to show a price advantage. It is expected that the SHFE/LME price ratio is unlikely to improve markedly in H2; with the import window remaining inverted, domestic smelters will continue to prioritize purchasing domestic zinc concentrates, and the willingness to procure spot imported cargoes is expected to remain weak.
(The above information is based on market data collection and the comprehensive assessment of SMM’s research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment or research decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.)
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