[SMM Sheets & Plates Daily Review] Weak Supply and Demand; HRC Prices Next Week May Struggle to Move Either Way

Published: Jul 24, 2026 17:52

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The most-traded HRC contract moved lower before rebounding today, ending at 3,289, edging down 0.12%. HRC prices drifted lower this week, with sluggish trading. Supply side, rolling mill maintenance increased this week, and overall HRC production edged lower. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened this week, with high temperatures and rainfall weighing on downstream activity; end-users purchased on an as-needed basis and export growth was insufficient. Inventory buildup continued, and weak demand is unlikely to change in the short term. Inventory side, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses (large sample) tracked by SMM this week stood at 4.3937 million mt, up 60,600 mt MoM, or up 1.40% MoM. By region, inventory buildup was more pronounced in South and Northeast China, while central and eastern regions saw slight destocking. Cost side, the average price of iron ore edged down and the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, weakening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, further coke price cuts will erode cost support, and poor off-season demand leaves HRC prices lacking upward momentum. However, shrinking HRC supply will provide support for prices. In summary, the most-traded HRC contract next week is expected to consolidate within the 3,260-3,340 range, struggling to move in either direction. Monitor macro factors and raw material disruptions for potential periodic market swings.

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