June plate and strip exports hit a new monthly high for the year, while the recovery of transferred orders may bring correction pressure in H2 [SMM Analysis]

Published: Jul 24, 2026 14:28

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[SMM Analysis: June Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip Exports Hit New Monthly High for the Year; Transfer Order Recall and Potential Pullback Pressure in H2] In June 2026, China's exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip reached 354,000 mt, up 10.6% MoM, setting a new monthly high for H1 2026. In H1, total exports amounted to 1.7891 million mt. By destination, Mexico topped the list with 45,300 mt, surging 46.4% MoM; US exports pulled back 29.2% MoM to 26,100 mt. By exporting province, Henan and Shandong together accounted for over 43%, continuing to lead the nation. In terms of product mix, exports of 0.2-0.28 mm aluminum alloy sheet (mainly can stock) reached 153,700 mt, accounting for 43.5%, continuing to dominate the export market. Notably, the production line of a leading North American rolling mill began to resume in June, and transfer orders have been gradually recalled. The high export activity driven by the order transfer effect in H1 is expected to face significant pullback pressure in H2.

SMM July 24, 2026 News:

In June 2026, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports reached 354,000 mt, up 10.6% MoM, setting a new monthly high for H1 2026. Cumulative exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip reached 1.7891 million mt in January-June. By destination, Mexico led with 45,300 mt, surging 46.4% MoM; US exports pulled back 29.2% MoM to 26,100 mt. By province, Henan and Shandong together accounted for over 43% of the total, continuing to lead the country. In terms of product structure, exports of 0.2-0.28mm aluminum alloy sheet (mainly can stock) reached 153,700 mt, representing 43.5% of the total, and continued to dominate the export market. Notably, North American leading rolling mills began resuming production lines in June, and transferred orders have been gradually recalled. The export boom in H1 driven by the order shift effect is expected to face significant pullback pressure in H2.

According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports reached 354,000 mt in June 2026. On a MoM basis, June exports grew 10.6% from 319,900 mt in May, marking the fourth consecutive month above 300,000 mt.

Looking back at H1 2026, monthly aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports showed a "low then high" trend: exports were 278,600 mt in January, pulled back to 230,800 mt in February due to the Chinese New Year effect – the lowest point of H1; recovered to 278,200 mt in March, jumped to 327,800 mt in April, pulled back slightly to 319,900 mt in May, then surged again to 354,000 mt in June. Cumulative exports in January-June totaled 1.7891 million mt.

In terms of product structure, June exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip were dominated by aluminum alloy sheet. Among them, exports of 0.2-0.28mm aluminum alloy rectangular sheet (mainly can stock) reached 153,700 mt, accounting for 43.5% of total June exports and up 14.6% MoM, making it the largest contributor to export growth in June.

By destination, Mexico ranked first with 45,300 mt in June, surging 46.4% MoM and accounting for 12.8% of the month's total exports. The US came second with 26,100 mt, but pulled back 29.2% MoM (vs. 36,900 mt in May), the largest pullback among the top 10 destinations. This change is related to the resumption of production lines at North American leading rolling mills in June, with the order diversion effect for can stock and automotive sheet caused by earlier fire-related outages now fading. Southeast Asian markets delivered strong performance: Vietnam (26,000 mt), Thailand (17,200 mt), Indonesia (11,700 mt), and Malaysia (11,100 mt) together accounted for 66,000 mt of exports, representing 18.6% of the month’s total exports. As the traditional core market for aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports, Southeast Asia maintained robust demand. In addition, markets such as the UK (14,200 mt, up 42.1% MoM), Brazil (11,900 mt, up 45.2% MoM), Australia (12,700 mt, up 25.4% MoM), and Cambodia (9,300 mt, up 30.3% MoM) recorded significant MoM increases, highlighting the broadening global demand base for Chinese aluminum plate/sheet and strip.

Looking at exports by registered origin, Henan province led with 83,000 mt, up 12.9% MoM, accounting for 23.5% of total exports for the month. In H1, Henan’s cumulative exports reached 423,600 mt, representing 23.7% of the national total. Shandong province followed closely, exporting 70,700 mt in June, up 10.2% MoM, and accounting for 20.0%.

Starting in late June, the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered rapidly, abruptly shutting the arbitrage window that had spurred massive aluminum semis exports. As the order diversion effect gradually faded, new orders for some segments have begun to decline. However, previously received fixed-price orders are still being executed as planned. Aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports are expected to gradually pull back from July onward, with H2 average monthly exports pulling back to the 280,000-320,000 mt range. Combined with the strong H1 performance, full-year exports are still expected to rebound to 3.3-3.4 million mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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