Refined Cobalt:
Refined cobalt spot prices continued to drift lower this week. At the start of the week, futures prices for refined cobalt fell sharply, driven by cobalt intermediate product and refined cobalt import data that slightly exceeded market expectations, triggering concentrated long liquidation and accelerating the price decline. Prices briefly stabilized mid-week but lacked momentum for a rebound, constrained by sluggish demand, and overall consolidated at lows. Supply side, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-works prices to 365,000 yuan/mt. Following the rapid price drop, traders raised offers on a spot-futures price spread basis to premiums of 1,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises entered the summer break cycle, with purchase willingness at a low ebb, limited to small-volume restocking on a need-to basis. Overall, July-August is the traditional consumption off-season for refined cobalt, with limited demand support, so prices will likely remain in the doldrums in the short term.
Intermediate Products :
Cobalt intermediate product prices remained generally stable this week, with the market tug-of-war remaining intense. Supply side, some Chinese-invested miners continued to base their offers on the low-end price of the European standard-grade refined cobalt multiplied by a cobalt hydroxide payables coefficient. However, a significant divergence in premium coefficient expectations between sellers and buyers made actual transactions difficult. Demand side, affected by weakening cobalt salt and refined cobalt prices, downstream smelters lowered their psychological price level for raw materials further to around $21-22/lb. In addition, China's June cobalt intermediate product import data released earlier this week exceeded market expectations, easing downstream concerns over potential raw material shortages to some extent and further weakening their purchase willingness. In the short term, while miners' inclination to hold prices firm persists, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the tug-of-war between the two sides continues. Intermediate product prices are expected to maintain their stable trend.
Cobalt Sulphate:
The cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week. Supply side, primary smelters held offers at high levels, with mainstream producers continuing to stand firm at 80,000-85,000 yuan/mt. Recycling smelters showed a relatively stronger willingness to sell, and some had lowered their offers below 78,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant improvement. Top-tier players continued to hold ample raw material inventories and had yet to initiate a new round of procurement. Some small and medium-sized enterprises had rigid restocking needs, but influenced by the sharp drop in refined cobalt prices, they adopted a cautious purchasing stance and anchored their bid prices around 73,000-74,000 yuan/mt, near the cost of dissolving refined cobalt. The price spread versus seller offers remained wide, limiting actual concluded transactions. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices will likely consolidate on a subdued note, and a sustained recovery still hinges on the realization of concentrated downstream restocking demand.
Cobalt Chloride:
The cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week, with no noticeable improvement in inquiry activity and order signing still sparse. Supply side, most smelters kept their offers stable, though current listing prices largely reflected upstream intentions to hold prices firm; closing deals at these offer levels was extremely difficult. Demand side, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" mentality continued to dominate, with cautious purchasing decisions and heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Furthermore, downstream players held relatively sufficient inventory and showed little urgency to buy. In the short term, prices are expected to continue moving sideways.
Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):
The Co3O4 market remained quiet this week, with substantial transactions still very limited. Supply side, as smelters entered Q3, general shipment pressure was relatively light and concentrated sell-offs subsided, leading companies to stabilize their quotes. Demand side, cathode material producers mainly engaged in price negotiations, purchasing small volumes on an as-needed basis. The sluggish market continued to dampen upstream shipment momentum. In the short term, Co3O4 price movements will remain closely correlated with cobalt salt prices, likely moving sideways in line with cobalt chloride.
Cobalt Powder and Others:
The cobalt powder market remained in the doldrums this week, with mainstream transaction prices slipping to 455,000 yuan/mt. Some traders' low-priced offers reached the 440,000-450,000 yuan/mt range. As prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained cautious purchasing strategies, shortening restocking cycles to half a month to one month, with relatively flexible negotiation room for large-volume orders. Raw material side, cobalt carbonate prices were under pressure, approaching the 200,000 yuan/mt threshold, with virtually no market transactions. The market generally expects a round of concentrated restocking in August-September. Until then, demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and cobalt powder prices will likely continue to seek a bottom on a weak note.
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
This week, edged down. edged up, moved lower, and remained stable.
Regarding discounts, some producers sought to narrow discounts for August and Q3 orders due to the high cost of sulphate raw materials. For long-term contracts, some producers had fixed terms at the start of the year without adjusting coefficients upward, and downstream buyers showed similarly weak acceptance of coefficient increases for quarterly contracts, leaving terms generally stable versus Q2. For spot orders, given the relatively subdued recent performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices, order coefficients for August are expected to remain largely stable compared to July.
Production side, top-tier producers continued to see strong export orders this month and maintained high production schedules, while domestic producers also saw a slight recovery in operating rates from June.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have generally pulled back recently, and future new order prices will depend on the pace of Q3 downstream stockpiling.
Ternary Cathode Material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to decline. Raw material side, nickel sulphate prices consolidated at lows, cobalt sulphate offers continued to be lowered, and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide experienced relatively significant price drops due to capital flow disturbances. Sentiment side, affected by the high volatility in raw material prices, some battery cell manufacturers maintained a bearish outlook. Given ample inventory, downstream battery cell manufacturers largely shifted to a cautious wait-and-see stance, slowing their pace of cargo pick-up, resulting in relatively mediocre transaction sentiment this week. Regarding discounts, as demand showed no further growth, battery cell manufacturers showed limited acceptance of discount narrowing. Meanwhile, the impending reinstatement of the consumption tax on lithium batteries could prompt battery cell manufacturers to pass some cost pressure upstream, further complicating efforts to narrow discounts. Demand side, in the EV market, ternary battery cell manufacturers widely adopted an M-1 monthly pricing settlement. Significantly impacted by the sharp raw material price drops in July, battery cell manufacturers exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment, and actual monthly pickup volumes are expected to fall short of previous forecasts. July domestic ternary cathode material shipments thus face potential downside. In the consumer electronics market, also affected by declining raw material prices, the expected tax reinstatement provided only a limited pull-forward effect on orders.
LCO:
LCO market transactions this week continued the previous stable yet sluggish trend. While Co3O4 remained generally stable, lithium carbonate saw a significant drop this week, causing a slight downward adjustment in LCO prices. Supply side, producer production schedules and shipments showed no significant improvement, and the short-term market outlook was relatively pessimistic. Demand side still lacked highlights. Downstream battery cell manufacturers and end-user orders saw a slight improvement, but constrained by the increased proportion of ternary materials in consumer products, this minor improvement did not translate into the LCO market. The market is still awaiting clearer signals, and future developments require monitoring upstream raw material price changes and whether downstream restocking activity can materially commence.
News:
[More than 6 out of Every 10 New Cars Sold in China are NEVs] On July 23, Yang Mu, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumption Promotion at the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that China's NEV retail penetration rate reached 62.8% in June, meaning more than 6 out of every 10 new cars sold were NEVs. (Xinhua News Agency)
[Minmetals New Energy: Projects H1 2026 Net Profit of 340-400 Million Yuan] Minmetals New Energy announced that it projects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 340 million to 400 million yuan for H1 2026, turning from a loss to a profit versus the same period last year. In H1 2026, the NEV and energy storage industries maintained high-speed growth. The company seized industry opportunities and exerted coordinated efforts across power battery materials, energy storage materials, and consumer electronics materials, achieving substantial YoY growth in product sales. (Jinshi Data APP)
[Chengdu: Promote Automakers to Accelerate R&D and Mass Production of L3+ Intelligent Connected Vehicles] The General Office of the Chengdu Municipal People's Government issued the "Chengdu Action Plan for Deepening the 'AI+' Initiative." The Action Plan proposes strengthening generic technology R&D, tackling core key technologies such as integrated perception, driving decision-making, and precise vehicle control, and continuously addressing technological shortcomings. Focus on core segments of the intelligent connected system and prioritize the development of key software and hardware products like intelligent cockpits, operating systems, and onboard terminals to reinforce industry support. Leverage AI technology to deeply integrate into the full vehicle R&D and upgrade process, and promote automakers to accelerate the R&D and mass production of L3-level and above intelligent connected vehicles. (Jinshi Data APP)
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Lin Ziya 86-2151666902
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Chen Bolin 021-51666836
Xu Mengqi 021-20707868
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