[SMM Analysis] HRC-Rebar Price Spread Set to Consolidate Between 150-250 yuan/mt in H2 2026

Published: Jul 22, 2026 17:28

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In H1 2026, the HRC-rebar price spread was slightly higher than the same period of 2025.

Since early 2026, the HRC-rebar spread of the most-traded contracts has fluctuated between 130-230 yuan, averaging 187 yuan, which is higher than the average of 128 yuan in the same period of 2025.

Figure 1 – SHFE Most-Traded Contract HRC-Rebar Spread Movement

This year, the HRC-rebar spread as a whole has been slightly higher than the same period last year. The main reason still lies in supply-demand fundamentals. In 2025-2026, the property sector continued to decline, and rebar supply and demand operated at low levels. Meanwhile, thanks to the resilience of China’s manufacturing demand and the active role of sheets & plates exports in diverting supply, the supply-demand imbalance for HRC was relatively lower than that for rebar against the backdrop of overall weak domestic steel demand.

In H2 2026, Room for HRC-Rebar Spread to Widen Is Limited

Looking ahead, starting from end-August, the off-season impact will gradually dissipate, and demand will gradually return to the peak season. At that time, demand from rebar-related property and infrastructure sectors and HRC-related manufacturing sectors is expected to improve. It is expected that in H2, both rebar and HRC prices may rebound slightly in tandem. However, considering that the overall steel supply-demand imbalance in China remains prominent, the room for the HRC-rebar spread to widen is relatively limited, and it may fluctuate between 180-230 yuan.

Towards year-end, as temperatures drop in many regions, the pace of outdoor construction will continue to slow down, while certain manufacturing sectors still have expectations of a year-end demand push. At that time, the HRC-rebar spread may widen slightly, entering a range of fluctuation between 200-250 yuan.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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