July 22, 2026 Tin Midday Commentary
The SHFE tin market consolidated at highs, with the consolidation range narrowing. The most-traded contract opened at 418,870 yuan/mt, surged to a high of 423,000 yuan/mt during the session, and then saw minor profit-taking at highs, consolidating around 418,000 yuan/mt. The morning session closed at 418,160 yuan/mt, up 1.11% from the previous trading day’s settlement price. On the LME side, three-month tin futures edged down slightly, last quoted at $53,970/mt, down 0.25%.
On the macro front:
(1) The US Trade Representative signaled that a new tariff policy will soon be rolled out to replace the 10% global import tariff expiring this Friday, planning to impose 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60 economies under the Section 301 investigation framework.
(2) In regional overseas financial policy, Indonesia’s Finance Minister, Purbaya, stated in a closing speech during a parliamentary bill debate that Indonesia plans to establish the Indonesian International Financial Center (PFII), aiming to attract foreign capital and sustainable investment, broaden long-term financing channels, and boost the country’s economic development.
On the spot front, the spot market remained relatively quiet this morning. Futures prices consolidating at highs notably pressured downstream and end-user purchasing willingness, with buyers generally showing strong wait-and-see sentiment amid high prices. Intraday transactions were mostly sporadic, small-tonnage rigid-demand orders, with limited large-scale buying support; suppliers quoted prices in line with market trends, and overall market turnover was relatively slow.
In summary, current macro and industry factors are mixed, with futures mainly priced by macro sentiment and industry narratives. The US Fed has now officially entered the quiet period ahead of the July 29 FOMC meeting; based on sustained cooling in prior June CPI and PPI data, the market widely expects rates to stay unchanged in July, and overseas liquidity conditions will likely stabilize in the near term. However, institutions remain cautious—if subsequent Middle East tensions push oil prices higher again, the risk of a rate hike resuming in September cannot be fully ruled out. Meanwhile, strong semiconductor and AI export data from South Korea continues to signal high prosperity in the AI computing sector, with the structurally strong “AI narrative” providing meaningful support for tin prices. Although high futures prices are suppressing spot consumption, with low inventories providing a floor and AI consumption sentiment lending support, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue consolidating at highs in the near term.
![Korean giants frequently release expansion signals, SHFE tin night session rises over 1% and returns to 410,000 [SMM Tin Morning Note]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XUPwI20251217171751.jpg)
