Korean giants frequently release expansion signals, SHFE tin night session rises over 1% and returns to 410,000 [SMM Tin Morning Note]

July 22, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

LME: LME three-month tin closed at $54,105/mt on July 21, up 1.53%, after testing resistance at $54,200 during the session; LME inventories extended destocking (7,595 mt last weekend, continuing to destock this week), cancelled warrants stayed high, and the overseas price support structure held.
China (July 21 night session): SHFE base metals were mixed in the night session. SHFE tin 2609 rose 1.02%, following the LME tin rebound; SHFE copper led the complex up 1.69%; SHFE lead was the sole decliner, down 0.95%.

Macro:

(1) According to the Chosun Ilbo, the South Korean government said it held a meeting with major export enterprises to discuss stabilizing the exchange rate through strengthened government-enterprise cooperation. Second Vice Minister of the Ministry of Economy and Finance Heo Jang met with major export firms including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor and Kia, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, Hanwha Ocean, and Samsung Heavy Industries at the Government Complex Seoul on the 21st. Heo Jang said that before the export enterprise meeting in June, the won-dollar exchange rate had once depreciated to near 1,550 won, but as export enterprises expanded FX settlement, shipbuilders increased forward foreign exchange selling, and capital flowed in from SK Hynix's ADR issuance, the rate has recently pulled back to the high-1,400 won range, and the foreign exchange supply-demand imbalance has eased somewhat. He expects that in H2, as semiconductor exports continue to improve, South Korea’s foreign exchange supply and demand conditions will improve further. Attending companies said they would further cooperate with the government to stabilize FX supply and demand, sustain the recent improvement trend, and promote stability in the foreign exchange market.
(2) According to the JoongAng Ilbo, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) is in negotiations with Intel (INTC.O) to acquire the latter's large semiconductor complex in Ohio, US, aiming to start front-end production of memory chips there within five years. SK Hynix is currently conducting internal evaluations and undergoing government approval procedures for the acquisition; the specific acquisition price and timetable are still being coordinated. If the deal is completed, SK Hynix would be able to meet the US government’s domestic production requirements while also providing a boost to cash-strapped Intel, helping its struggling foundry business tide over difficulties. (Jin10 Data App)
(3) Nvidia (NVDA.O) said its latest-generation Vera Rubin chip architecture is being delivered to customers, helping to solidify its industry leadership. Nvidia Vice President and General Manager Ian Buck said that computing systems based on Vera Rubin technology have been delivered to major AI companies and are entering the deployment stage. “We have fully entered mass production, and all major customers are deploying related systems.”

Fundamentals:

(1) Supply: Wa rainy season winding down and TCs raised, conditions marginally easing but still constrained. Tin concentrate TCs raised by 500 yuan/mt, cumulative increase of 1,750 yuan/mt , reflecting that periodic ore supply replenishment eased smelting pressure; the rainy season in Wa (May-July) is winding down, production resumption is underway but for the full year output will only recover to 40-50% of pre-ban levels , and full production resumption has been postponed to 2027. Whether output ramps up to 1,800 mt/month in metal content after August is a key variable. Indonesia’s refined tin exports in June were 2,995 mt, up 5.09% MoM but down 32.55% YoY ; cumulative exports in Jan-June stood at 18,715 mt, down 25% YoY, and the halving trend in exports remained unchanged.

(2) Demand: Off-season deepening, but AI and semiconductors provide support. July is the traditional off-season for PV welding strip and consumer electronics; downstream users are price-wary and remain on the sidelines; from late August, stockpiling for new Apple and Huawei models will be the next demand trigger .

Spot market: weak, dominated by rigid demand and post-pricing. Traders generally reported that “few spot-pricing deals, mostly post-pricing”; solder plants showed clear resistance above 410,000 yuan/mt, and basically no orders were placed above 412,000 yuan/mt; home appliance production schedules faced insufficient orders, and PV demand slid MoM after the May 31 installation rush; the combination of traditional off-season and high prices suppressed demand, leaving overall July orders still sluggish.

[Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information is based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM, and is for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment or research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]