Prebaked Anode Exports Surge Sharply MoM in June, Markets Outside China Show Stark Divergence in H1 [SMM Analysis]

SMM reported on July 22:

According to customs data, China’s prebaked anode exports in June 2026 reached 277,100 mt, up 111.26% YoY and 95.32% MoM. Preliminary calculations show the average export price of prebaked anodes in June was approximately $918.49/mt, up 11.47% YoY but down 1.13% MoM. In H1 2026, China’s cumulative prebaked anode exports totaled 1.2774 million mt, up 20.97% YoY, with exports maintaining strong expansion momentum throughout the half, January-June.

From a domestic export region perspective, prebaked anode exports in June 2026 were concentrated in Shandong, Hunan, and Jiangsu. Shandong topped the list with exports of 221,300 mt, accounting for 79% of the total, followed by Hunan with 20,100 mt (7%) and Jiangsu with 18,300 mt (7%). These three provinces together contributed over 90% of the national prebaked anode exports, reflecting significant industrial agglomeration effects.

By destination country, Malaysia, Canada, and Indonesia accounted for about 56% of China’s total prebaked anode exports in June 2026. Exports to Malaysia were approximately 64,600 mt (23% of the total), up 47.53% YoY; exports to Canada were 58,100 mt (21%), up 248% YoY; and exports to Indonesia stood at 34,300 mt (12%), up 48.63% YoY.

In H1 2026, China’s prebaked anode export market showed pronounced regional divergence:

Asia continued to lead. Malaysia ranked first with 280,700 mt, up over 34% YoY, boosted by raw material demand from local aluminum capacity recovery. Indonesia exports reached 176,500 mt, surging 40% YoY, becoming another core growth engine in Asia. Azerbaijan saw exports hit 14,200 mt, soaring 76.87% YoY, among the highest growth rates, reflecting the pull from new aluminum capacity releases in the Caucasus region.

Traditional markets in Europe and North America showed steady demand. Norway stood out with exports of 174,900 mt, up 48.60% YoY. Canada ranked among the top three with 211,200 mt, maintaining a stable 27.94% growth rate. Iceland’s exports doubled YoY (+104.50%), and Spain surged 84.55% YoY. Europe’s overall market showed a “stronger West, weaker East” pattern, partially offsetting the shortfall in Eastern European markets.

Emerging markets in Oceania and Africa began to make their mark. Angola’s export volume exceeded 36,000 mt, with North Africa gradually becoming a new incremental source for China’s prebaked anode exports. Australia and Vietnam, as new markets, already saw exports surpass 10,000 mt in H1, indicating that import demand for raw materials from local aluminum industries is opening up.

The Russian market experienced a cliff-like decline. H1 exports to Russia totaled just 30,800 mt, plummeting 65.79% YoY, heavily impacted by geopolitical tensions and shifting trade conditions, with little prospect of a near-term reversal.

The Middle East market contracted overall. Exports to the UAE fell 9.72%, while Bahrain and Oman plunged over 40%, and Saudi Arabia dropped around 70%. Germany and the UK also saw notable declines. Aluminum production cuts in these regions, combined with local supply adjustments, exerted significant pressure on China’s prebaked anode exports.

In summary, China’s prebaked anode export market in H1 2026 was characterized by “volume growth with stable prices amid intensifying divergence.”

Positive factors:
Sustained release of new aluminum capacity in Southeast Asia and North Africa — projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Azerbaijan coming onstream will serve as core drivers of future anode export growth;
Resilient demand in traditional European markets — stable procurement from Norway, Iceland, and Spain supports export fundamentals;
Effective expansion into emerging markets — breakthroughs in Australia, Angola, and Vietnam are expected to bring additional incremental volumes.

Risk factors:
The likelihood of a near-term recovery in the Russian market is low, with geopolitical constraints hard to remove;
Middle East demand may remain subdued — the trend of production cuts in markets like the UAE and Bahrain has yet to reverse.

Overall assessment: Driven by new capacity releases in Southeast Asia and expansion into emerging markets, China’s prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a mild growth trajectory in H2 2026, with full-year cumulative export volume likely sustaining a double-digit YoY growth rate.