Risk-Off Sentiment Heats Up, Silver Prices Rebound; Spot Market Continues Weak Supply and Demand [SMM Daily Review]

Today SMM's 10:00 a.m. Ag (T+D) price on Shanghai Gold Exchange was 14,599 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted at TD-5 to +5 yuan/kg, averaging 0 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, Trump is set to impose new tariffs on dozens of countries as soon as this week, with the 10% temporary tariffs about to expire. The U.S. Trade Representative has signaled that the new tariffs will take over rapidly, escalating global trade frictions. Meanwhile, Iran has proposed a 10-day ceasefire, strengthening expectations of easing U.S.-Iran tensions. Combined with the need for a technical correction, safe-haven buying has driven both gold and silver higher, with silver outperforming gold in terms of elasticity. Temporarily buoyed by the ceasefire deal, the precious metals are expected to still have some upside room and may primarily consolidate in the near term.

Spot market side, elevated silver prices dampened buyer interest, with overall consumption remaining sluggish. Against a widening spot-futures price spread, suppliers quoted high today, though actual trading still leaned toward parity. Morning quotations in Shanghai were mainly concentrated between parity against the TD contract and +5 yuan/kg. The willingness to sell among suppliers waned, while downstream inquiries were limited. Some GB-standard cargoes in Shenzhen were clustered around TD-5 yuan/kg to parity, with the market sluggish at month-end. Today's premiums against the SHFE 2608 contract were quoted at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg, while premiums against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract were quoted at a discount of 60 to 40 yuan/kg.

Overall, the near-term technical correction in precious metals points to a maintained fluctuating trend. The spot market was sluggish, inquiries were sparse this week, and transaction premiums hovered near parity, with the supply-demand situation remaining weak on both fronts at month-end.