Gold, silver and oil all rose, most metals gained, LME copper and coking coal rose nearly 2%, and LME tin, LME nickel, COMEX silver and SHFE silver led gains [Overnight market].

SMM July 22 news:

In the metals market:

Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%.

Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%.

In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%.

In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%.

As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices:

Macro front

Domestic market:

[State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App)

[Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The project commissioned this time is currently the leading industrial tail-gas-to-hydrogen and resource-utilization demonstration project in south-west China. Leveraging surplus local coke oven coal gas resources from the steel industry, the project uses independently developed full-chain process technology to complete component separation, converting industrial tail gas that was originally used for combustion power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ per year of 99.999% fuel cell, battery-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News)

US dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21.

Rising oil prices put pressure on the rates market, and the market’s assessment of the likelihood of US Fed rate hikes in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, Natixis’ Chief US Economist, believed that energy price fluctuations should drive US Fed decision-making. (Wallstreetcn)

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged in July was 74.9%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 25.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged by September was 28.9%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 55.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 15.4%. (Jinshi Data APP)

In addition, according to a Reuters poll: 78 of 104 economists (78 of 102 in last month’s poll) expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026.

On the macro front:

Today, data including the UK June CPI m/m and the UK June Retail Price Index m/m were due to be released.

Crude oil:

Overnight, both crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%.

The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and the Houthi armed group announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, with traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunging 34% within two weeks. (Wallstreetcn)

Data: US crude oil inventory increased last week. For the week ended July 17, API crude oil inventory was 2.603 million barrels (expectations: -500,000; previous: -564,000). For the week ended July 17, API gasoline inventory was -1.379 million barrels (expectations: -1.81 million; previous: -1.664 million).

In addition, Iraq’s oil minister said that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements expected to be signed between Iraq’s Ministry of Oil and US enterprises would reach $200 billion.

In a statement, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that the recent escalation of hostile actions against energy infrastructure in and around the Strait of Hormuz had heightened concerns over global energy supply security and increased uncertainty about the market outlook. The threats facing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, have further intensified these concerns. However, he noted that the crude oil market is currently supported by several buffering factors. Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply through alternative shipping routes, and some crude continues to be exported via the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that crude exports from the Gulf region, while below the end-June high, remain significantly above the levels from March to mid-June. Additionally, increased exports from producers including the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China’s nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement of the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves on March 11, member countries have released about 290 million barrels into the market, and the ongoing release of emergency inventories is providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data App)

Due to the contract rollover, NYMEX crude oil August futures will see floor trading conclude at 2:30 a.m. on July 22, and electronic trading end at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms' US oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please take extra care.