In H1 2026, China's silver bullion raw material and refined silver imports and exports showed a divergent trend. Silver ore imports continued to expand driven by high silver prices and a seller-dominated market, with cumulative growth of 35.5% YoY. Refined silver exports remained steady, basically flat cumulatively YoY in H1, while the MoM growth widened to 26% in June. Overall, ore imports grew strongly, while refined silver exports maintained resilience. The H2 trend will depend on price spread changes and end-use consumption pace.
Refined Silver Exports Up 26% MoM in June, Cumulative H1 Basically Flat YoY
In June 2026, China's 99.99% unwrought silver exports totaled 471 mt, up 26% MoM and up 9.5% YoY. Cumulative H1 exports reached 2,275 mt, edging down 0.97% YoY. By trade mode, processing trade with imported materials accounted for about 95% in H1.
Two main reasons underlie the steady growth in refined silver exports. First, during the export window opening in May-June, the Hong Kong premium against LBMA remained at a discount of 20-30¢/oz. With domestic trade quoting discounts against the SGE T+D futures, smelters' willingness to opt for exports increased, driving significant export growth in Q2. Second, global demand remained broadly steady, with stable needs from jewelry, electronic components, and investment.
On the import side, refined silver imports in June stood at 32.58 mt, down 21% MoM. Cumulative H1 imports reached 847 mt, surging 2,241% YoY. Although the import window opened slightly recently, overall silver bullion trade flows have gradually returned to normal.
From January to April 2026, large volumes of imported silver bullion entered the market, causing notable inventory buildup in Shenzhen and other regions. Imported silver bullion suppliers selling at low prices continuously disrupted normal silver bullion trade quotations. Coupled with weak industrial demand, social inventory of silver bullion kept accumulating. From late June into July, as low-priced supply was gradually cleared and end-use consumption edged up slightly, speculative positions successively retreated, and spot offers stabilized. However, the market still needs to be wary of potential disruptions from high inventories of low-priced supply.
Looking ahead to H2, the refined silver export market is expected to maintain the growth momentum seen in June, with export volumes likely to continue climbing. As demand in markets like India and Taiwan gradually recovers, and domestic processing trade export profit margins are expected to stay high, full-year exports are expected to edge up YoY.
June Silver-Bearing Ore Imports Up 15% MoM, with H1 Cumulative Growth of 35.5%
In June 2026, China's silver-bearing ore imports totaled 219,000 mt, up 15% MoM and 62.5% YoY. H1 cumulative imports reached 1.165 million mt, up 35.5% YoY.
By trade mode, Ordinary Trade accounted for 47% and processing trade with imported materials 38%. By import source, Peru held a 57% share, remaining the top supplier.
In the short term, June silver-bearing ore imports continued to expand, partly as long-term contracts locked in by sellers during the high-price period in February-March are still being delivered. In the long term, the silver-bearing ore market has been seller-dominated this year. The silver content in copper and lead concentrates is now priced separately, making by-product silver the main profit driver for smelters. Driven by elevated silver prices, large volumes of silver-bearing ore keep flowing into the Chinese market, with high-grade ore imports from South America being particularly prominent. However, the sustainability of end-use consumption warrants caution. While some silver-bearing ore can be exported under processing trade manuals, refined silver products from smelting may face inventory accumulation pressure amid weak jewelry and investment demand.
Silver-bearing ore imports in 2026 are expected to surge over 50% YoY, but as market enthusiasm gradually cools, H2 imports may pull back slightly.
