June China Held Back from Selling Amid Losses, Outside China Off-Season Procurement Wrapped Up [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics show that China's SiMn alloy exports in June 2026 amounted to 367.39 mt, down 94.06% MoM and 68.10% YoY. Total SiMn alloy exports from January to June reached 21,616.28 mt, up 53.65% YoY cumulatively.

SiMn alloy exports fell off a cliff in June, primarily pressured by three factors: “prioritizing domestic demand, weak overseas demand, and holding back from selling amid losses.”

First, priority was given to domestic rigid demand consumption: domestic manganese-based alloy capacity (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) maintained baseline operations due to high shutdown costs, creating rigid floor-level consumption for SiMn. Spot supply at plants was channeled first to meet domestic long-term contracts and steel mill purchases, tightening the availability of goods for export.

Second, overseas demand weakened on a phased basis: the traditional off-season set in during June, overseas downstream steel mills’ stockpiling drew to a close, global crude steel production trended lower, import demand from the overseas market contracted, and overseas buyers exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment, temporarily holding back concentrated purchases.

Third, losses dampened the willingness to take export orders: SiMn spot prices continued to grind lower in June. South China producing regions were mired in deep losses, while margins in the north were also squeezed. Alloy plants showed low willingness to actively sell and were cautious about taking loss-making orders, further reducing export volumes.

From the perspective of regional import and export structure, SiMn exports were destined primarily for Indonesia.

Regarding the sustainability of future SiMn alloy exports: macro perspective, it will be necessary to track the transmission effects of changes in the global economic environment on the overall SiMn market; fundamental perspective, attention should be focused on the pace of recovery in overseas steel mill production demand, as well as shifts in China’s SiMn producer capacity, cost controls, and other conditions.