June Refined Zinc Imports Exceed Expectations; Will July Exports Increase? [SMM Analysis]

SMM July 20:

According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in June 2026 were 5,500 mt, up 500 mt or 9.22% MoM but down 84.85% YoY. January-June cumulative imports were 59,600 mt, down 68.96% YoY. Refined zinc exports in June were 2,300 mt, down 40.3% MoM but up 24.49% YoY, with January-June cumulative exports at 20,800 mt, up 67.8% YoY. Consequently, net refined zinc imports in June stood at 3,100 mt, and cumulative net imports in January-May were 38,700 mt.

By country, the top three import sources of refined zinc in June were Kazakhstan (3,400 mt, 61.93%), Australia (1,400 mt, 25.86%), and South Korea (300 mt, 5.39%); the top three export destinations in June were Vietnam (1,200 mt, 50.46%), Thailand (900 mt, 38.03%), and Singapore (100 mt, 4.33%). The stronger-than-expected increase in refined zinc imports in June was mainly driven by an increase in Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas of Kazakh zinc, as the import window remained closed, Ordinary Trade volumes stayed low, accounting for only 6.3% of imports. On the export side, by trading partner, the main destinations in June were Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore, together accounting for over 92% of total exports. From the perspective of export profits, although the spot export window to Southeast Asia opened occasionally in June, it was relatively small, and spot sales in Southeast Asia weakened MoM, with sluggish sales. Overall export volumes edged down.

In July, with LME outperforming SHFE, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio declined. The export window for spot refined zinc to Southeast Asia widened further, but the ship-to-delivery-warehouse window in Southeast Asia had not fully opened, so market exports were still dominated by spot cargoes, and exports were expected to increase. On the import side, as the window remained continuously closed, refined zinc imports were expected to remain primarily outflows from bonded zones, with overall significant growth unlikely.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly-available information, all other data are derived from public information, market communication, and based on SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.