LME Copper Slightly Drops While SHFE Copper Edges Up; Middle East Conflicts Continue to Disturb Copper Prices [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM, July 20: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,413/mt, fell to a low of $13,382/mt early in the session, then the price center drifted higher, rising to $13,533/mt near the end, and finally settled at $13,528/mt, down 0.11%. Trading volume reached 19,600 lots, and open interest reached 245,000 lots, up 3,041 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears added to their positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt, dipped to 103,000 yuan/mt early on, then copper prices drifted higher, touching a high of 103,990 yuan/mt near the end, and finally settled at 103,880 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest reached 184,000 lots, up 3,839 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls added to their positions. On the macro front, Iran ceased implementing the Iran-US memorandum of understanding, and Trump responded that he "doesn't care at all." Iran then warned that if US forces continued their operations, it would shift to a full-scale offensive, and had already used drones and missiles to attack US military targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. The US military confirmed two soldiers dead and one missing. Facing escalating conflict, the US accelerated the deployment of additional fighter jets to the Middle East and warned Gulf states, while Iran declared that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had dropped to zero, and threatened to target Gulf facilities, including airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, the supply side saw persistently tight availability of spot cargoes, with inventories at lows for the year, maintaining an overall tight situation. On the demand side, the market was in the off-season for consumption, downstream procurement was sluggish, and overall performance was weak. Overall, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.