Cooling U.S. Inflation More Than Expected Boosts Liquidity, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidates Above 410,000 [SMM Tin Midday Review]

July 15, 2026 Tin Midday Commentary

The SHFE tin market consolidated in the morning. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 421,000 yuan/mt and closed the morning at 416,520 yuan/mt, up 1.36%. On the LME, the three-month tin contract was narrowly rangebound during the day, currently at $53,650/mt, up 0.28%.

On the macro front:

(1) US June CPI grew 3.5% YoY (est. 3.8%, prior 4.2%) and fell 0.4% MoM (est. -0.1%, prior 0.5%). After the data, traders pushed back expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes to October.

(2) In trade data, China’s total trade value in H1 2026 reached 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY, with exports at 14.73 trillion yuan (up 13.4%) and imports at 10.74 trillion yuan (up 22.1%). The export structure continued to improve. Exports of mechanical and electrical products were 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1% YoY, accounting for 63.5% of total exports; high-tech product exports were 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39%. Combined imports and exports of computing power hardware such as electronic components and computer parts reached 5.13 trillion yuan, surging 56.6% YoY.

Spot side, morning spot trades were overall mediocre. As the absolute futures price rebounded above 410,000 yuan/mt, downstream buyers became increasingly cautious in purchasing and generally stayed on the sidelines, waiting for prices to pull back or stabilize. In terms of operation, the market mostly focused on essential needs. Earlier, when the futures price dipped to around 400,000 yuan/mt, low-ball orders were placed for tentative purchases. Facing the upward shift in the current price range, buyers’ wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and spot trading atmosphere was subdued.

Overall, the Middle East geopolitical situation had previously seen phased easing. The temporary removal of navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz drove a pullback in the global crude oil supply chain premium, easing inflation pressure from the energy cost side. As inflation expectations improved, liquidity pressures eased somewhat, driving the price center of metals higher. However, the Middle East situation has seen renewed twists recently. Although the commodity market’s immediate reaction to the geopolitical events has become somewhat blunted, the uncertainty will still cap the upside potential of futures prices to some extent. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain its fluctuating trend within the current range in the near term.