Rare Earth Prices Show Divergence, Tug-of-War Between Upstream and Downstream Continues [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]

SMM, July 14: Rare earth market prices diverged today. Specifically, in the oxide market, the price of Pr-Nd oxide was lowered by 2,500 yuan/mt, dysprosium oxide price held steady, terbium oxide price was lowered by 25,000 yuan/mt, gadolinium oxide price was lowered by 1,000 yuan/mt, holmium oxide price was raised by 7,500 yuan/mt, and erbium oxide price was raised by 7,500 yuan/mt.

In the metal market, Pr-Nd alloy price held steady, dysprosium-iron alloy price held steady, terbium metal price was lowered by 25,000 yuan/mt, gadolinium-iron alloy price held steady, holmium-iron market price was raised by 5,000 yuan/mt, and lanthanum-cerium metal (alloy grade) price held steady.

In overseas markets, praseodymium oxide FOB price was raised by $2.5/kg this week, neodymium oxide FOB price was raised by $3/kg this week, terbium oxide FOB price was raised by $40/kg this week, dysprosium oxide FOB price was raised by $4/kg this week, praseodymium metal FOB price was raised by $3/kg this week, neodymium metal FOB price was raised by $5/kg this week, and terbium metal FOB price was raised by $50/kg this week.

Currently, the rare earth market exhibited price divergence: oxide prices fluctuated significantly, while metal prices remained relatively stable. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream was especially intense. Yesterday afternoon, influenced by large plants entering to purchase Pr-Nd oxide, low-priced cargo availability tightened, and suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices diminished, leading to a slight upward adjustment in quotes. However, the overall increase was relatively small, and compared to yesterday morning, prices still showed a downward trend. In the metal market, although prices operated steadily, since oxide costs edged up today, metal enterprises' quotes improved compared to yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, inquiry activity in the metal market picked up slightly, but downstream magnetic material enterprises mainly made tentative inquiries, with actual transactions remaining in a stalemate.

In the medium-heavy rare earth sector, terbium products saw suppliers slightly lower their quotes due to difficulty in concluding deals at high prices; holmium products saw suppliers raise quotes due to scarce low-priced cargo; gadolinium product prices were affected by the weak Pr-Nd price and the stalemate in market trading, with gadolinium oxide quotes nudged lower, but gadolinium-iron alloy suppliers held quotes firm without significant adjustment; dysprosium product prices continued to run steady.

Overall, affected by intense upstream-downstream tug-of-war, oxide market prices fluctuated notably, while the metal market saw relatively firm supplier quotes without significant adjustment, as inquiries were somewhat sluggish. In the short term, due to production cuts and stoppages at some raw ore separation and scrap recycling plants, oxide suppliers' reluctance to sell at low prices may drive Pr-Nd product prices to drift higher amid fluctuations.