Rare earth market prices continue to run in the doldrums, with limited actual transaction volume expansion [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]

SMM, September 18: Rare earth market prices were in the doldrums overall today. Specifically, in the oxide market, Pr-Nd oxide prices were flat, dysprosium oxide prices were flat, terbium oxide prices were flat, gadolinium oxide prices were flat, holmium oxide prices were flat, and erbium oxide prices were flat.

In the metal market, Pr-Nd alloy prices were flat, dysprosium-iron alloy prices fell by 10,000 yuan/mt, terbium metal prices fell by 40,000 yuan/mt, gadolinium-iron alloy prices were flat, holmium-iron prices were flat, and lanthanum-cerium metal (alloy grade) prices were flat.

In markets outside China, FOB prices for Pr-Nd oxide and medium-heavy rare earth were weak overall this week: terbium oxide FOB and terbium metal FOB fell by $12/kg each; praseodymium oxide FOB, neodymium oxide FOB, dysprosium oxide FOB, Pr-Nd oxide (FOB China), Pr-Nd alloy (FOB China), praseodymium metal FOB, and neodymium metal FOB held steady.

Currently, rare earth market prices are in the doldrums overall. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, the entire Pr-Nd segment stopped falling: raw material-side Pr-Nd oxide saw no adjustment for two consecutive days, the cost side returned to neutral, and metal producers, under pressure from losses and resistance to high-priced transactions, found it difficult to either raise prices or concede further, keeping offers within the existing range. Demand side, magnetic material enterprises continued to seek low-priced purchases, with actual transaction centers near the lower end of quotes, and deals were mostly sporadic just-in-time procurement, with no sign of volume expansion.

In the medium-heavy rare earth market, the dysprosium-terbium metal segment was the only downward mover today: dysprosium-iron alloy and terbium metal fell in tandem, while corresponding dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide quotes held steady. Metal producers proactively cut prices while raw material prices were unchanged, mainly due to resistance to high-priced transactions. Dysprosium and terbium oxides continued to consolidate. The gadolinium segment remained stable, with no adjustment in gadolinium oxide or gadolinium-iron alloy. The holmium segment stabilized after yesterday's catch-up decline, with holmium oxide and holmium-iron both closing flat. Erbium products stopped falling, with quotes holding steady.

Overall, the market showed a divergent pattern of "all oxides stable, metals alone falling" today: the Pr-Nd segment saw no movement for two consecutive days, previously adjusted products such as gadolinium, holmium, and erbium entered consolidation, and only dysprosium-iron alloy and terbium metal continued to concede on price. The transaction side showed no recovery, with buyers and sellers still locked in a standoff at low levels. After metal producers cut prices, actual shipment improvement was limited, and downstream users mainly engaged in price-comparison inquiries and just-in-time procurement. The actual implementation of pre-holiday stockpiling remains the biggest variable at present.

In the short term, with the cost side stabilizing and losses constraining the Pr-Nd segment, downside for offers is relatively limited. Whether it can strengthen depends on whether magnetic material enterprises' pre-holiday stockpiling shifts from inquiries to actual orders. For medium-heavy rare earth, with oxides showing no signs of weakening, the extent of further declines in dysprosium-terbium metal may gradually narrow. Dysprosium and terbium oxides may first consolidate to digest earlier declines, while gadolinium, holmium, and erbium are expected to remain stable. The overall market does not yet have the foundation for a trend rebound.