【SMM Analysis】2026 H1 NEV Commercial Vehicle Review: Heavy-Duty Truck Volumes Doubled, a Blue Ocean Market Is Emerging

In the first half of 2026, the new energy commercial vehicle (NECV) sector truly took off. According to CAAM data, China's NECV sales reached 548,000 units in H1 2026, up 36% YoY. Domestic sales accounted for 495,000 units, up 40%, while exports reached 53,000 units, up 8%.

The strength in domestic sales can be attributed to two main factors: supportive policies and declining costs.

On the policy front, the "two new" initiatives continued to support the scrappage of commercial vehicles with China IV emission standards or below, replacing them with low-emission models, with priority given to electric vehicles. Subsidies for new NECV purchases can reach up to RMB 140,000 per vehicle, and in some regions, this can be stacked to as high as RMB 220,000 per vehicle, substantially shortening the payback period for the price gap between electric and diesel vehicles.

On the cost side, with oil prices remaining high this year, the cost advantage of electricity over diesel has become evident. Electric commercial vehicles can save approximately RMB 0.8 per kilometer in energy costs, translating into RMB 80,000 in annual savings for a vehicle travelling 100,000 km per year. In addition, declining battery prices, along with the growing maturity of battery swapping and leasing models, have significantly narrowed the initial purchase price gap between NECVs and their internal combustion engine counterparts.

With both policy support and cost improvements in place, the penetration rate of NECVs has climbed steadily. In May, the penetration rate of NECVs in domestic sales reached 40%, up 15 percentage points from the same period last year. Among these, heavy-duty trucks stood out as the brightest spot, with cumulative domestic sales reaching 126,200 units in H1 2026, up 85% year-on-year. The "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Large-Scale Application of New Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks," jointly issued by the Ministry of Transport and other departments, sets clear targets: a penetration rate of 40% and a total stock of 1.6 million units by 2030, providing a clear growth trajectory for the segment.

NECV exports have also progressed steadily. In May, the export penetration rate of NECVs exceeded 10% for the first time. Although its share in total commercial vehicle exports remains relatively small, the strategic significance of exports is evident amid increasingly fierce domestic competition. China is deepening its presence in traditional markets such as Asia-Pacific, South America, and Africa, while also breaking into higher-standard markets like Turkey, Australia, and Germany. Chinese commercial vehicles are gradually transitioning from a cost-effective positioning to one defined by high technological sophistication.

With domestic NEV sales contracting by 13% year-on-year in H1 2026, and pressure on domestic sales likely to persist, the NECV sector still represents a blue ocean. SMM projects that the ratio of passenger to commercial vehicles in China's NEV market will be approximately 91:9 in 2026, shifting to 87:13 by 2030. While passenger vehicles will remain the dominant segment, commercial vehicles have higher battery capacities per vehicle, which will meaningfully support long-term demand for upstream battery materials, particularly lithium iron phosphate.

In terms of battery capacity, commercial vehicles are also seeing significant gains. In May, the average battery capacity of new energy buses and trucks both exceeded 210 kWh, compared with around 180 kWh in the same period last year. The rise in the share of heavy-duty trucks has been a key factor—the current average battery capacity for new energy heavy-duty trucks has already reached 460 kWh. Looking ahead, as heavy-duty truck penetration continues to increase, the average battery capacity per new energy truck is expected to exceed 300 kWh by 2030.

From a global perspective, SMM estimates that in 2026, ICE vehicles will still account for 77.5% of the commercial vehicle market, while NEVs will take a 22.5% share, within which BEVs and PHEVs will account for 17.4% and 5.1%, respectively. BEVs have become the mainstream in NECVs for simple reasons: commercial vehicle operators prioritize per-kilometer costs, and pure electric operation is far cheaper than diesel. Heavy-duty trucks and buses tend to operate on fixed routes, making them ideal for battery swapping solutions, while policy support also favors BEVs. In the long run, BEVs are set to maintain their dominant position in the NECV sector.