SHFE tin inventory pulls back to a year-to-date low, transactions above 410,000 appear sluggish [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

July 13, 2026 SMM Tin Morning Brief:

The most-traded SHFE tin 2608 contract consolidated at highs during the night session, closing at 415,020 yuan/mt, down 0.42%.

Macro:

(1) According to Yonhap News Agency, industry sources revealed on Sunday that Samsung Electronics is working to advance the commissioning time of its first semiconductor factory at the Yongin chip cluster to 2029, one to two years earlier than originally planned. "The early commissioning of the first factory will enable Samsung to respond more quickly to the rapidly growing global demand for AI chips," said an industry official. In addition, Samsung stated last month that under its mega-project investment plan, it plans to invest 2,030 trillion won (approximately $1.35 trillion) in the Pyeongtaek and Yongin semiconductor clusters, and 400 trillion won to build two new chip factories in Gwangju, 270 kilometers south of Seoul.
(2) On Friday evening (July 10) US Eastern Time, SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-jung said that 2027 is expected to be the tightest year in the history of the memory industry. "Now customers are flocking to SK Hynix seeking long-term supply agreements. Demand continues to grow, but our capacity is limited. Although we are doing our best to expand capacity, customer demand may still outstrip our supply capability even after 2030," he said. However, a domestic industry investment source who has previously interacted with South Korean memory manufacturers said that beyond their own development, executives at major overseas memory companies are also paying close attention to the capacity expansion progress of Chinese memory manufacturers. China's "two memory makers" (Changxin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies) could become the biggest long-term variable in the future memory market.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: The tight ore supply situation has not been resolved, but signals of marginal improvement are increasing. Most smelters will focus on maintaining stable production in July. (2) Demand side: The traditional off-season effect is deepening, with rigid demand support coexisting with high price suppression. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases made based on orders.

Spot market: Last week, the tin market exhibited a "strong reality, weak demand" tussle: As of July 10, China's total social inventory across three regions stood at 6,861 mt, sharply down 438 mt WoW. Since the historical peak of 13,604 mt in early June, cumulative destocking has reached 49.5%, with total inventory pulling back to a low for the year. By region, destocking was mainly concentrated in Shanghai (down 406 mt WoW, accounting for 92.7%), while Guangdong edged down 32 mt and Jiangsu remained stable. On the price front, SHFE tin surged to 419,000 yuan/mt before coming under pressure. Although spot premiums remained firm, solder producers showed low purchase willingness above 410,000 yuan/mt, presenting a "priced but no market" situation.

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