Tin Prices at High Levels ‘Stuck in a Stalemate’: Macro Sentiment Underpins, Downstream Players Hold Back on High Prices [SMM Tin Morning Briefing]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on July 13, 2026

Market Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract continued to swing wildly at highs this week. The price center was repeatedly swayed by macro sentiment, while geopolitical conflicts and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes alternately influenced the futures, with the overall fluctuation range around 406,000 to 418,000 yuan/mt. In the tin ingot spot market, overall transactions were weak this week. After prices surged rapidly at the beginning of the week, downstream buyers showed strong fear of high prices, and their purchasing willingness was significantly suppressed. When futures pulled back to lows mid-week, a small amount of rigid-demand point-price transactions were released, and deals recovered slightly, but after prices rose again in the afternoon, the rush to buy amid continuous price rise quickly cooled. Approaching the weekend, futures rose again and suppressed market trading, with only a few enterprises placing low-price orders tentatively. Although suppliers actively quoted, the market was mostly wait-and-see, and the overall trading atmosphere was relatively sluggish.

Market Forecast:

On the international macro front, positive news continued this week, and expectations for the global semiconductor and AI industry chain prosperity provided ongoing support for tin prices. The upcoming Q2 earnings expectations of memory chip giant Samsung Electronics are extremely strong, which is expected to alleviate market concerns about AI investment returns and overcapacity, and boost confidence in tin demand from the electronics industry. Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Science and Technology has clearly promoted the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, and accelerated the development of strategic emerging industry clusters. These industrial policies outline a positive outlook for mid- and downstream demand. Turning to China’s tin market, the overall picture shows tight supply with marginal improvement and demand suppressed by high prices.

In terms of supply, the tight ore supply situation has not been resolved, but signals of marginal improvement increased. Most smelters maintained stable production as the main theme in July, and the supply of refined tin did not see a significant release of volume. On the demand side, the traditional off-season effect deepened. Downstream solder and electronics enterprises had a strong fear of high prices, and their purchasing strategies were cautious, mainly based on rigid-demand orders and sporadic restocking. Speculative demand was significantly suppressed by high tin prices, and overall spot market transactions were mediocre. Looking ahead to next week, with a supportive macro environment and cost support, SHFE tin is likely to continue consolidating at highs, but the weak reality of the off-season will limit the upside room. Investors need to closely monitor changes in downstream acceptance of high prices and inventory changes. They can maintain a cautiously bullish stance, but should not chase the rally. It is recommended to purchase as needed or position on dips when prices pull back.