Tightening expectations outside China have softened somewhat, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is consolidating around 416,000 [SMM Tin Midday Review]

July 10, 2026 Tin Midday Review

Tin markets in and outside China consolidated at highs. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 418,000 yuan/mt and closed at 417,660 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 2.33% from the previous trading day’s settlement price. On the LME, the three-month tin price currently stood at $53,700/mt, up 0.70%.

On the macro front:

(1) Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg publicly denied concerns over AI computing power surplus, announcing that its self-developed Iris AI chip will enter mass production in September using TSMC toll processing; the company plans to double its computing scale to 14 GW by 2027, with full-year AI infrastructure spending reaching up to $145 billion, and has locked in a long-term memory supply agreement with Samsung.

(2) According to Iranian media reports, multiple areas in southern Iran were attacked on July 9. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement on July 9, saying that in the second phase of its response to US military actions, its aerospace forces used 10 ballistic missiles to strike the US command and control center in West Asia and the air base in Azraq, Jordan. The statement warned that if the US military launches further military operations, other US bases in the region will face heavy strikes.

Spot side, overall market trading this morning was weak. Pressured by the further rise in futures center, and with the weekend approaching, downstream and end-user enterprises' purchase willingness clearly weakened, and overall trading sentiment turned subdued. During the day, only a few downstream enterprises placed low-priced orders tentatively, resulting in sporadic single-digit transactions. Suppliers were active in quoting but mostly priced in line with the market, as market participants mainly stayed on the sidelines.

Overall, the metals sector is currently experiencing a marginal reshaping of macro expectations. The US Fed’s monetary policy framework has undergone a subtle tone shift since July, moving from the broadly hawkish and clear rate hike bias signaled by a large number of officials from April to mid-June to a unified weak certainty statement that rate hikes would occur only when necessary. As any future resumption of rate hikes was fully rephrased as conditional, requiring factors such as persistent inflation rebound or spreading energy shocks, the market has been pricing in expectations of easing tightening ahead of time. The US dollar index has been weak, providing a macro buffer window for the industrial metals sector. Against the backdrop of overall sector consolidation, tin has benefited from the structural 'AI narrative' support of global AI server and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) industry chain expansion, leading to positive investment sentiment and showing some resilience against declines. Moreover, market sensitivity to the repeated Middle East tensions has diminished, with funds gradually shifting their focus to actual inflation performance after the geopolitical risk premium is transmitted to crude oil prices. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue to consolidate at highs. Going forward, attention should be paid to the marginal evolution of the geopolitical situation over the weekend and market sentiment flows.