Crude Oil Surges, Base Metals Broadly Decline, LME Tin, SHFE Tin, LME Zinc, Stainless Steel Lead Losses, NY Silver Drops Over 4% [Overnight Market]

SMM July 9:

Metal markets:

Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.84%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.22%, SHFE lead fell 0.09%, SHFE zinc fell 0.65%, SHFE tin fell 1.43%. SHFE nickel rose 0.51%. In addition, alumina most-traded futures rose 0.22%, while the main aluminum alloy contract fell 0.63%.

Overnight, ferrous metals were mostly higher. Stainless steel fell 1.03%, iron ore rose 0.54%, rebar rose 0.16%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.23%, the most-traded coke contract rose 0.26%.

Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.6%, LME aluminum fell 0.02%, LME lead rose 0.19%. LME zinc fell 1.2%. LME tin fell 1.54%. LME nickel rose 0.89%.

Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.7%, COMEX silver fell 4.3%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.47%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.88%.

As of 7:12 a.m. July 9, overnight closing prices:

Macro front

China:

[Xi Jinping attends National Science and Technology Awards Conference, Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and 11th National Congress of China Association for Science and Technology, delivering important speech] Xi Jinping attended the National Science and Technology Awards Conference, the Assembly of Academicians of the Two Academies, and the 11th National Congress of the China Association for Science and Technology, and delivered an important speech. Xi stressed the need to deeply integrate technological innovation and industrial innovation, remove hurdles to accelerate the transformation of science and technology into real productivity. Scientific and technological innovation should be application-oriented, while industrial innovation should raise scientific questions. Strengthen the construction of a national technology transfer system, create diversified application scenarios and high-level industrial clusters, and promote the application and iterative upgrading of self-developed technologies and products. Improve the intellectual property protection system. Establish a sci-tech financial system compatible with sci-tech innovation. (CCTV News)

[PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Committee meeting: Strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises] The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its Q2 2026 regular meeting. The meeting analyzed domestic and international economic and financial situations, noting that the current external environment is more complex and volatile, global economic growth momentum is weak, geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions are frequent, major economies' performances are diverging, and inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments remain uncertain. China's economy has been generally stable, improving in quality, and making new progress in high-quality development, but still faces problems and challenges such as stronger supply than demand, structural divergence, and external shocks. The meeting called for continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, better leveraging the total and structural functions of monetary policy tools, enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices. The meeting pointed out the need to guide large banks to play the main role of financial services for the real economy, push small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, and enhance banks' capital strength. Make good use of various structural monetary policy tools, optimize tool management, effectively write the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, sci-tech innovation, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Continue to provide sound financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Maintain stable operation of financial markets. Effectively promote high-level two-way opening-up of the financial sector, and improve economic and financial management capabilities and risk prevention capabilities under open conditions.

[CPCA: June passenger vehicle exports reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY] According to CPCA data, June passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) reached 877,000 units, up 82.3% YoY, and up 11.5% MoM, accounting for 37% of total passenger vehicle manufacturer sales (36% last month, 19% in the same period of 2025). New energy vehicles accounted for 56.9% of total exports, up 16 percentage points YoY. In June, exports of Chinese domestic brands reached 763,000 units, up 86% YoY; exports of joint venture and luxury brands reached 114,000 units, up 61% YoY. (From Wall Street See APP)

US dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 101.07. The Fed's June meeting minutes showed officials' growing concerns about high inflation. Although officials worried that rising prices were spreading and might require interest rate hikes, they followed the footsteps of Fed Chairman Warsh in issuing a more streamlined policy statement. At the June 16-17 meeting, a few participants saw a case for an immediate rate hike. But the broader discussion appeared evenly split: "most participants" saw scenarios where inflation could ease back to the Fed's 2% target on its own, while also seeing scenarios where inflation would persist. "Almost all" of those espousing the latter view thought rate hikes would be necessary in that case. The minutes said: "Participants generally agreed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained high, while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had eased." In the end, "all participants" supported keeping rates unchanged. Policymakers also considered Fed Chairman Warsh's proposal to end "forward guidance" and reduce comments on future rate decisions in the statement. "Most participants noted they saw advantages to shortening the statement," the minutes said, while "most participants" supported removing language implying the Fed's next policy move was likely to be a rate cut. The alternative approved by the Fed in June stripped out any interest rate guidance altogether, consistent with Warsh's general desire to avoid committing to rate moves. At the June meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the latest projections showed a general belief that rate hikes could come this year, with 9 of 18 officials expecting a modest rise in rates by end-2026. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 69.0%, and a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31.0%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.1%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 17.0%. (Jin10 Data APP)

Macro front:

Data to be released today include China's June CPI YoY, China's June PPI YoY, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, and US existing home sales annualized for June. Also watch for: Fed release of monetary policy meeting minutes; ECB release of June monetary policy meeting minutes; and remarks from FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams.

Crude oil:

Overnight, both crude oil futures continued their gains from the previous session and surged further, with WTI crude up 6.13% and Brent crude up 7.17%. US President Trump said the temporary ceasefire with Iran had ended, geopolitical risk premium returned to oil prices, market fears of crude supply disruption quickly intensified, and international oil prices jumped. (Wall Street See)

According to Xinhua, US President Trump said on July 8 during the NATO summit in Turkey that US forces "are likely to hit Iran hard again tonight." Xinhua also reported that on July 8, Trump said at the NATO summit he believed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding "has ended." Wall Street See noted that shortly afterward, Trump said the escalation would calm down quickly, seemingly adding fuel to the geopolitical fire before trying to put it out. Earlier, the US had announced the revocation of waivers for Iranian oil sales and launched a new round of military strikes against Iran. However, an unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories somewhat eased geopolitical risk premiums. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said: "Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially come to a halt, which speaks louder than any statement from Washington or Tehran about the current risk perception." (Wall Street See)

US President Trump said we'll see if we can keep oil prices low, we should keep oil prices low. We're now facing an oil oversupply. This situation will soon end, and oil prices will fall. We will make the oil situation safer. (Jin10 Data APP)

US Energy Information Administration (EIA): Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels, compared to Bloomberg user estimate of a 1 million barrel decline and analyst expectations of a 1.8678 million barrel decline, after a 3.775 million barrel decline the prior week. US commercial crude oil inventories increased for the first time since April, ending a streak of consecutive monthly declines, though they remain at their lowest level in about four years. (Wall Street See)

In addition, the Russian government announced that the ban on diesel exports will remain in effect until July 31.